Former Fed president sees strong case for 50-point cut next week

Former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said there’s scope for a half-point rate cut at the central bank’s meeting next week.

“I think there’s a strong case for 50,” Dudley said on Friday at a forum organized by The Bretton Woods Committee in Singapore. “I know what I’d be pushing for.” 

Dudley, who led the New York Fed until 2018, is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist and now chair of the Bretton Woods Committee. 

The former Fed member cited a slowing US labor market, with risks to jobs greater than lingering challenges to inflation in supporting his call for a half-point reduction. He also highlighted Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole last month, underscoring not wanting to see further weakness in labor.

Dudley’s remarks come even as data earlier this week showed core US inflation unexpectedly picked up in August, reinforcing expectations for a quarter-point cut next week. Dudley previously said he expected a 25-basis-point reduction.

“The question is why don’t you just get started?,” Dudley said. “It’s basically up to Chairman Powell to see how much support he has for being more aggressive.”

Some Wall Street Banks were outliers to a 25-basis-point rate cut expectation this month, expecting a more aggressive Fed move. After the most-recent inflation data, economists at Citigroup Inc. scaled down their bet to a quarter-point cut. The bank kept its call for a total of 125 basis points of easing this year.

Markets and economists remain at odds for the trajectory of US monetary policy this year. US swaps data is currently pricing in more than 100 basis points of cuts this year, as expectations grow that the economy could dip into a recession and will need more support.

Earlier this month, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he’s “open-minded” about the potential for a bigger rate cut and would advocate for one if appropriate. 

“It’s very unusual to go into the meting with this level of uncertainty — usually the Fed doesn’t like to surprise markets,” Dudley said.