Gold near all-time high with rate cuts in focus

Gold steadied near an all-time high, as weak US data bolstered the case for deeper interest rate cuts. 

Bullion climbed to a record $2,670.57 an ounce earlier on Wednesday, before paring its gains. A report on Tuesday showed US consumer confidence this month fell the most in three years. 

Swaps traders increased bets for more than three-quarters of a point of easing by the Federal Reserve this year. Lower rates tend to benefit both gold and silver as they don’t offer interest, while a weaker dollar makes the metals cheaper for many buyers.

Gold has surged 29% this year, while silver has risen 34% — with the rallies gaining momentum after the Fed’s half-point cut last week. 

Gold has also been supported by strong central bank purchases and heightened geopolitical tensions driving haven demand. A too-close-to-call US presidential election that could be massively consequential for financial markets is now less than six weeks away. 

Gold and silver tend to move largely in tandem as both offer similar macro- and currency-hedging properties. Still, the white metal is more exposed to the economic cycle as it’s also an industrial commodity used in clean-energy technologies, including solar panels.

In a boost for industrial metals, Beijing announced a series of stimulus measures Tuesday to address the nation’s economic malaise and in particular targeting the real estate market.

“The main driver for silver in the last few weeks has been the gold rally — which got another boost yesterday from higher rate-cut expectations following the weak consumer confidence report,” said Zhong Liang Han, an analyst at Standard Chartered Plc. However, the “rally in industrial metals following China’s broad stimulus package was the key driver behind the next leg of the up-move in silver.”

Spot gold was steady at $2,657.73 as of 9:04 a.m. in London. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed following. Silver dipped 0.8% to $31.85 an ounce, retreating from near a four-month high afer gaining 4.6% on Tuesday. Palladium and platinum declined.

Silver is getting attention given the sharp rally in gold, especially as investors look for catch-up buying opportunities, said Joni Teves, a precious metals strategist at UBS Group AG. 

“The move in industrial commodities is likely also providing an additional boost,” Teves said. “Our bullish outlook for silver is unchanged; we think it can outperform in this environment of rising gold prices, Fed easing and forecasted silver market deficits.”

Looking ahead, investors are waiting for more US data — including the personal consumption expenditures gauge and jobless claims — due later in the week, for additional indications on the Fed’s likely easing path.