Homeowners and investors in America’s residential real estate market are seeing little growth in the value of their homes, and it’s not looking great for the year ahead.
Prices nationwide gained only 0.02% month-over-month in October, the latest month of data from the CoreLogic Home Price Index. And while annual growth came in at 3.4%, there is expectation that growth will slow over the next year with the firm’s forecast of 2.4% by October 2025.
Recent data shows that slightly less than half of US homes with a mortgage were equity rich (48.3%) in the third quarter of 2024, down slightly from the previous quarter (49.2%). That means the loans secured on these homes amount to less than half of the homes’ estimated market value.
“A slight home price bump after a late summer decline reflects the rebound in home buying demand resulting from a short but effective decline in mortgage rates in August. Still, as we continue to bump along during this slower time of the year for the housing market, home prices are not expected to reveal much about what’s ahead for the spring home buying market. In the last few years though, springtime has seen home prices jump higher than before the pandemic despite elevated mortgage rates.”
However, while the national gain is constrained, there are some pockets of the US residential real estate market that are outperforming, led on a metro basis by Chicago which posted a 6.4% year-over-year rise, narrowly beating Miami’s 6.2%.
On a state basis, the Northeast showed resilience with annual gains of 8.1% for New Jersey and 7.5% for Rhode Island, which were both pushed prices to record highs, while New Hampshire saw a 6.3% increase.
Washington D.C., Idaho, and Montana all saw significant declines from their price peaks with annual decreases of -3.5%, -2.5%, -2.1%, respectively. Washington DC prices are up 4.7% year-over-year though, while Hawaii was the only state to post an annual home price decline.
The national median house price for single-family homes is $385,000 but this is expected to rise in spring 2025.
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