The volatility in global financial markets hasn’t derailed investor optimism around US technology behemoths or expectations of a soft economic landing, according to a global survey by Bank of America Corp.
While the poll, conducted from Aug. 2 to Aug. 8 and covering the height of last week’s turmoil, showed a defensive rotation into bonds and cash and out of equities, long bets on the Magnificent Seven tech stocks remained the most crowded trade — albeit less so after the selloff.
Large-cap growth stocks — dominated by tech — were still viewed as the likely leaders of a new US equity bull market, although conviction eased to 36% from 47% in July.
“Core optimism on soft landing and US large cap growth stocks is unbowed,” strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in the note. It’s “just that investors now think the Fed needs to cut harder to guarantee no recession.”
The survey, which canvassed 189 participants with $508 billion in assets, showed expectations of a soft landing jumped to 76% from 68% in July. Still, global growth expectations fell sharply, with a net 47% of respondents now expecting a weaker economy in the next 12 months. A US recession replaced geopolitical conflict as the biggest tail risk.
Tech stocks have led the rout in equity markets, hurt by stretched valuations and worries that the Federal Reserve had been too slow to cut interest rates in time to prevent a recession. While the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index has recouped all its losses from early last week, it remains about 10% below its July record high.
BofA’s survey showed allocation to equities fell to a net 11% overweight — the biggest month-over-month decline since September 2022. At the same time, exposure to bonds rose to a net 8% overweight from 9% underweight in July. That’s the highest allocation since December.
The biggest regional equity allocation was to US equities, while exposure to Japanese stocks saw the largest one-month drop since April 2016.
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