Leading economic indicators down in July

The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators, which gauges the economic outlook for the next three to six months, fell 0.7% in July. The New York-based Conference Board also revised the June figure up to no change, compared to the initially estimated 0.1% decrease. “We have had a very weak economy and we will see more of the same going forward,” said Ken Goldstein, labor economist at the Conference Board. “We are so weak because households are down to spending money [at a] bare minimum and business has been in the same boat.” The index has declined 1.8% over the past six months, with seven components of the index falling during that period. Five of the 10 indicators included in the index declined in July, including building permits, stock prices and initial jobless claims. The negative data was offset by positive contributions from the interest rate spread and consumer expectations. The coincident index, which measures current economic conditions, rose 0.1% in July, following a 0.1% increase in June. In the past six months the coincident index has fallen 0.4%. “The forces that brought the U.S. economy to its knees stretch across the globe and it might get worse before it gets any better,” Mr. Goldstein said.