Metals to remain constrained until post-election, Citi expects

Uncertainty around the US presidential election in November will prevent meaningful gains for metals by subduing global risk appetite and possibly delaying government stimulus in China, according to Citigroup Inc.

“We think Fed rate cuts, further China policy easing, and an upturn in global manufacturing sentiment will be more constructive for metals pricing in late fourth quarter/early 2025, once the US election is behind us,” analysts including Tom Mulqueen wrote in a note, referring to the Federal Reserve.

Metals from copper to aluminum have retreated in recent months on concerns that Chinese demand will slow, coupled with jitters over the global economy. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. fueled an increasingly cautious tone across commodities by slashing $5,000 from its 2025 copper forecast earlier this week.

In the November contest, Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump will face off against Vice President Kamala Harris in what’s expected to be a close battle. In a recent national poll of likely voters published by Emerson College, Harris leads her rival by 49% to 47%.  

Copper is heading for a second weekly decline, with prices little changed at $9,083 a ton on the London Metal Exchange on Friday, 1.7% lower on week. Aluminum is back to level for this year after falling in the seven sessions to Thursday, while zinc has slumped this week amid more woes in China’s steel market.

Investors are waiting for Friday’s US jobs report that should shed more light on conditions in the world’s biggest economy as the Federal Reserve prepares to cut interest rates. The last payroll report was so weak it helped to fuel a rout across stocks and commodities.

Citigroup held its three-month forecasts at $9,500 for copper and $2,500 for aluminum and said an eventual recovery in global growth should help prices. Still, the threat of new or higher tariffs should Trump return to the White House “remains a key risk to the growth rebound narrative,” it said.