Not your average bear market, analyst says

"We would urge caution for investors attempting to call the bottom in the current environment," a Merrill strategist wrote.
JUN 23, 2008
Rising food and energy costs, an ailing financial sector and a hobbled consumer are evidence that the economy has a "worse-than-average recession" and potentially the worst economic decline in more than three decades, wrote Brian Belski, U.S. sector strategist at Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. in New York. ``This is not your average recession,'' he wrote. ``We would urge caution for investors attempting to call the bottom in the current environment.'' Mr. Belski noted that the economy has always relied heavily on the consumer, and found: "It is hard to believe that the current economic slowdown will be an 'average' recession as the consumer continues to weaken." Household net worth has crossed into negative territory for the first time since the 2001 recession, Mr. Belski said. He also noted that there are several parallels to the recession that took place between 1973 and 1975, such as higher oil prices, increased food costs and a weak dollar.

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