OPEC+ set to postpone oil supply hike as prices slide

OPEC+ is close to agreement on delaying a planned increase in oil production after prices plunged amid fragile demand. 

Key coalition members likely won’t go ahead with the scheduled hike of 180,000 barrels a day in October, according to delegates who asked not to be identified because the discussions are private. They are also discussing postponing similar monthly increases also scheduled for this year, one delegate said. 

The rethink came after crude prices slumped below $73 a barrel earlier this week, reaching the lowest since late 2023, following downbeat economic data from China and the US, the biggest consumers. This offers consumers some relief after years of rampant inflation, but current price levels are too low for the Saudis and others in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to cover their government spending.

Led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, OPEC+ agreed in June on a road map for gradually restoring supplies halted since 2022. But it vacillated as soon as the plan was unveiled, repeatedly stressing the increases could be “paused or reversed” if necessary. A major output disruption in Libya seemed to offer the group space to go ahead, but members are now leaning toward caution.

Postponing the rise might avert the surplus that prominent market-watchers such as the International Energy Agency and trading giant Trafigura Group were expecting in the fourth quarter. Conversely, opening the taps could initiate a slump toward $50 a barrel, Citigroup Inc. warned.

“OPEC+ is facing a binary choice between delaying tapering and enduring a disorderly crude price rout,” said Bob McNally, president of consultant Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House official. “It appears to be leaning toward the former, as it has always cautioned it would in this case.”

At the start of this week, OPEC+ delegates were signaling that the scheduled boost remained on track.

Output in member Libya was slashed in half last week after authorities in the eastern region shuttered more than 500,000 barrels a day in a clash with the Tripoli-based government over control of the central bank.

The disruption came on top of the halt of Libya’s biggest oil field, Sharara, earlier in August.

But on Tuesday, Sadiq Al-Kabir — the central bank governor whose attempted ouster precipitated the crisis — said there were “strong” indications political factions are nearing an agreement to overcome the current deadlock.

Brent futures plunged 5% and OPEC+ officials shifted position, saying that discussions on delaying the group’s supply hike were in progress.  

While global crude markets are currently tight amid summer driving demand, they’re set to ease significantly once the seasonal peak in consumption passes.

Data from China has shown critical engines of economic growth sputtering, with factory activity contracting for a fourth month and the value of new-home sales declining. US manufacturing activity showed a fifth consecutive month of contraction. 

The OPEC+ road map outlines the gradual return of 2.2 million barrels a day through to late 2025. The group will soon need to decide whether to proceed with the next monthly supply tranche, set for November. An online meeting of its review body, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, is scheduled for Oct. 2.