Residential real estate prices have slowed again, and it's likely to get worse

Residential real estate investors and other clients who own their homes are seeing a slower pace of gains in their value according to new data.

The September reading of the CoreLogic Home Price Index shows that prices nationwide for single-family homes (including distressed sales) increased by 3.4% year-over-year, the slowest pace of growth in more than a year. And there is set to be further decline to an estimated 2.3% annual growth by September 2025.

There was a slight positive in the newly released stats, as after months of modest declines on a month-over-month basis, September saw an increase, but only of 0.02%.

CoreLogic chief economist Selma Hepp noted that home prices were relatively flat heading into the fall, reflecting much of the housing market especially with would-be buyers still reluctant due a cocktail of concerns. 

“Despite some improved affordability from lower mortgage rates during August, homebuyers mostly kept on the sidelines and decided to wait out the mortgage rate drop for a potentially better opportunity next year, when the current volatility, uncertainty surrounding the election’s outcome, and the impact on longer-term rates may be slightly clearer,” Hepp said. “And while the mortgage rate and economic outlook is full of questions, home prices are likely to maintain their leveled path until early next year when buyers return to the housing market.”

Typical of the real estate market, home prices were not weak everywhere. Homeowners in Miami and Chicago saw annual price rises close to 7% to be the best performers of the US metros tracked by the HPI.

At a state level, Rhode Island led the gains with 9%, while Hawaii was the only state to record a year-over-year home price loss (-0.4%).

A recent survey of real estate investors revealed strong sentiment for the residential sector, with 68% of respondents saying the market was better in the third quarter of 2024 than it was a year earlier while just 13% felt it had worsened. However, financing could remain challenging.