Survey: More experts fear recession

A U.S. recession seems increasingly likely this year, according to a survey of economists, industry experts and other financial forecasters, conducted by the Wall Street Journal. In the latest monthly survey, economists polled by the paper put the chance of recession at 42%, up from 38% in December and 23% just six months ago. The survey's participants cited several reasons for their fears, including the national bump in unemployment to 5%, an increase that they predict will be followed by more of the same. They were similarly pessimistic about the number of jobs that will be created in the coming year, putting the number at 74,000. Another worry was the increase in government spending, although many praised President Bush's tax cuts. Another topic that worried the group was the rising cost of oil, fearing it would drive inflation higher. By and large, the participants were disappointed by the performance of the Fed, specifically giving Chairman Ben Bernanke a rating of 80 out of 100, the lowest rating he has received to date. The survey also showed that another half-percentage point cut in interest rates is expected for the fist six months of the coming year. Market experts also expect a Democratic president to lead the next administration: 33% predicted a win for Barack Obama, while 30% chose Hillary Clinton.