A proposal by President Donald Trump to offer a fast-track visa to wealthy immigrants in exchange for a $5 million investment is drawing scrutiny from real estate experts and immigration lawyers, who say the plan could impact the housing market and face legal hurdles.
The so-called "gold card" visa program would replace or modify the existing EB-5 investor visa, which allows foreign investors to obtain US residency by funding job-creating projects.
Trump's proposal, which he unveiled last week, significantly overshadows the financial threshold for the current EB-5 residency by investment program, which requires a minimum investment of $800,000 in designated areas.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has touted the initiative as a potential revenue generator, claiming it could raise $1 trillion to pay down the national debt.
“We will modify the EB-5 agreement,” Lutnick said last week, according to CNN. “For $5 million, they’ll get a license from the Department of Commerce. Then they’ll make a proper investment.”
Trump set a two-week timeline for the program to launch, which means it would take effect before the 15th.
While the details remain sketchy, real estate analysts have come out to warn that allowing foreign investors to qualify through real estate purchases could contribute to rising home prices, particularly at the high end of the market.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, suggested the program could intensify demand. “I’m sure that if they can come up with $5 million, they probably have a little extra to buy real estate,” Yun said in an interview with MarketWatch. “So it will bring about more demand in the ultra-high end of the real-estate market.”
Similar programs in Europe have at times driven up property values in major cities, leading some governments to adjust their rules.
Basil Mohr-Elzeki, a managing partner at Henley & Partners North America, a consultancy firm known for tracking residential preferences among the world's wealthiest individuals, noted that foreign investment in residential properties can make it harder for locals to afford housing.
“That overheats the real-estate market and makes it very hard for the locals to live where they used to live,” Mohr-Elzeki said.
Beyond its potential impact on real estate, immigration law experts question whether Trump’s administration can unilaterally replace the EB-5 program. Congress originally created the EB-5 visa in 1990, and legal experts say legislative approval would likely be needed to eliminate or overhaul it.
Nicolette Glazer, an immigration attorney in California, told CNN that a separate "gold card" program could potentially be added through the budget process if it were structured as an immigration tariff rather than a replacement for EB-5. “I could see them trying to put in something like that just to show that they’re doing something,” she said.
Others remain skeptical that a $5 million visa would attract a large enough pool of investors to replace EB-5’s economic contributions. Charles Kuck, an immigration attorney with decades of experience handling EB-5 applications, believes the existing program’s financial impact far outweighs what a “golden visa” could generate.
“The amount of money that the EB-5 program has brought in over the course of the last 30 years would dwarf the number of people who could actually afford and want to use a $5 million golden visa,” Kuck said.
On the heels of Trump announcing the gold card visa scheme, the CEO of Henley & Partners came out supporting the measure while urging the administration to ensure "a well-structured transition that safeguards existing programs."
"[T]he proposed gold card visa presents an exciting new opportunity for high-net-worth investors seeking US residence and citizenship," Dr. Juerg Steffen said in a statement last week. "However, maintaining continuity and clarity in investor immigration policies is also crucially important."
For now, investors, real estate developers, and immigration professionals are waiting for further details on how the administration intends to proceed. Lutnick has acknowledged that reforms to EB-5 are under discussion, saying the existing program has lacked oversight.
“It was poorly overseen, poorly executed,” he said. “Then you had our border open, where millions of people came through.”
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