U.S. stock market getting closer to a 'melt up,' says HSBC

Don't bet on the end of the bull market just yet. While Wall Street's average yearend target for the S&P 500 is just 2% higher than where it closed last week, technical strategists at HSBC Holdings Plc say stocks are poised for a move higher. Two major components of the S&P 500 could break out, according to the note sent out by Murray Gunn and team. They are industrials and the "FANG" stocks, composed of Facebook Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Netflix Inc., and Alphabet Inc. "The S&P 500 industrials sector has given a bull signal with momentum turning higher on the back of a positive cyclical trend indicator," the analysts write, meaning that the slope of the 200-day moving average is showing positive momentum that could preface a further move higher. The sector is up roughly 5% so far this year, while the broader S&P 500 is up just under 3%. Meanwhile, the heavyweight FANG stocks have been showing more strength following a tough start to 2016. "This is further evidence that a melt up in U.S. stocks is becoming an increasing probability," the HSBC analysts write, noting that the four stocks have broken through a so-called resistance line. HSBC's more positive view of industrials and the FANG stocks is at odds with some other recent market action and investor behavior, with safe-haven utility stocks rallying on the back of Friday's disappointing jobs report. Meanwhile, low-volatility ETFs have also seen billions in inflows this year — testament to investors' inclination to play defense in the current environment. Investors worried about a slowing of U.S. growth in light of the poor jobs data will likely shy away from the cyclically sensitive industrial stocks. Overall, Wall Street still thinks equities will end the year about where they are today. The highest estimate for the S&P 500, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, is 2,325 from Thomas Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC. That would be 11% higher than where the S&P closed on Friday.