Amid a flurry of RIA deal announcements coming out of the Thanksgiving holiday break, the CEO of sell-side M&A consultancy Alaris Acquisitions warns that the activity could be a precursor to a slowdown in M&A in 2026.
“Market volatility is motivating many sellers to act now in hopes of completing a transaction before a broader correction. As a result, Q1 should be active. If markets do retrench, we expect a short-term slowdown until valuations and sentiment stabilize,” said Alaris Acquisitions CEO Allen Darby.
Beyond that, he expects buyers will up their equity offerings to sellers in 2026, as opposed to other deal structure incentives such as cash, debt, or earn-outs.
“We anticipate a growing willingness among buyers to include more equity in their deal structures. It’s a way to strengthen alignment between parties and reinforce long-term partnership dynamics,” said Darby.
Industry giant Creative Planning added $1 billion RIA Burt Wealth Advisors in Maryland on Tuesday, with fellow mega-RIA Wealth Enhancement adding $532 million Minneapolis-based firm FPG Private Wealth. Allworth Financial and Sequoia Financial Group, two RIAs with roughly $30 billion AUM apiece, both acquired firms worth roughly $400 million this week, while the $4 billion RIA Credent sold a minority stake to alternative asset manager Crestline Investors to begin the final month of 2025’s already record-setting year for RIA M&A transactions.
“Market volatility remains the primary threat to deal activity heading into 2026,” said Darby. “Historically, when markets correct, sellers tend to pause because of valuation pressure. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a modest slowdown. That said, underlying momentum remains strong, and we expect a solid baseline of activity to continue.”
Major U.S. stock market indices trended up on Tuesday, led by the Nasdaq Composite’s 0.7% advance. The day also saw a 0.4% gain for the Dow Jones Industrial Average while the S&P 500 rose 0.3%.
Volatility was more pronounced in Bitcoin, which slumped below $82,000 in November after hitting its all-time high of $126,000. It gained some of that ground back on Tuesday, when BTC rebounded above $92,000.
Despite Darby’s sentiment towards a 2026 slowdown in RIA M&A, Deloitte is projecting a continued surge in the broader M&A market across industries. According to Deloitte’s 2026 M&A Trends Survey, 90% of private equity firms and 80% of corporate respondents expect an increased number of deals their organization will do in 2026, while 87% of PE respondents and 81% of corporate respondents anticipate increases in aggregate value of their deals next year.
“Our initial findings reflect dealmakers’ optimism for an increase in M&A activity in 2026, along with some moderated expectations around the degree of that increase,” reads Deloitte’s report. “We have also identified the potential 'two market' phenomenon, in which small and medium deals may offer value realization opportunities to complement the spike in larger deals observed in the second half of 2025.”
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