Investors, beware: housing market still has cracks

Investors should take note: the housing market still has its issues, notably rising mortgage delinquency rates for some homebuyers.
MAY 28, 2013
Above-average and rising delinquency rates among low- to moderate-income first-time homebuyers show that the U.S. housing market still has a few lingering cracks in the foundation — and that should give investors pause. Despite rising home values and easier access to credit, mortgages made from state-issued municipal bonds designed for entry-level homebuyers continue to see rising delinquency rates, according to a report released this week by Moody's Investors Service. The semiannual report, which studied data through December, found that Housing Finance Agency delinquency rates for single-family loan programs rose for the sixth straight year, with the 90-plus-day delinquent category reaching a record high of 3.2%. That compares with the lowest levels of 1.2% measured in December 2006. Total delinquencies — including 60 days late and foreclosures — also set a record of 8.03%, representing an almost 4% increase from the previous year. The HFA program is a $44 billion subcategory of the $3.7 trillion muni market that involves issuing bonds to finance mortgage loans to certain entry-level homebuyers. The program, which has been around since the 1970s, issues the muni bonds to finance mortgage loans, and the mortgages become the collateral for the bonds. Looking at it from a muni-bond perspective, Moody's analyst Eileen Hawes pointed out that the bonds are still in good shape, with assets-to-debt ratios still hovering around historic average levels of 1.2 to 1. “Delinquencies are continuing to increase, but based on asset-to-debt ratios, the programs are still healthy and sustainable,” she said. Ms. Hawes cited high unemployment as the key driver of delinquency and foreclosure rates for HFA mortgages. “The unemployment rate is projected to remain comparatively high in the near term, and HFA customers are especially susceptible to the effects of joblessness and underemployment,” she said. “We do see the housing market in a recovery; however, the delinquency and foreclosure rates have prevented that from translating to the performance of HFA portfolios.” Even though the trend has been negative, the broader theme of a gradually stronger housing market has Moody's holding off on any downgrades to the HFA bonds. This is in line with what most market watchers are now seeing in the U.S. housing market. “Housing is still depressed and still healing, but right now, the path of least resistance is to the upside,” said Bob Doll, senior portfolio manager and chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management LLC. “It's not as if housing is booming, but we are recovering,” he said. “You have to remember that while the country went through a recession, housing went through a depression.”

Latest News

The 2025 InvestmentNews Awards Excellence Awardees revealed
The 2025 InvestmentNews Awards Excellence Awardees revealed

From outstanding individuals to innovative organizations, find out who made the final shortlist for top honors at the IN awards, now in its second year.

Top RIA Cresset warns of 'inevitable' recession amid tariff uncertainty
Top RIA Cresset warns of 'inevitable' recession amid tariff uncertainty

Cresset's Susie Cranston is expecting an economic recession, but says her $65 billion RIA sees "great opportunity" to keep investing in a down market.

Edward Jones joins the crowd to sell more alternative investments
Edward Jones joins the crowd to sell more alternative investments

“There’s a big pull to alternative investments right now because of volatility of the stock market,” Kevin Gannon, CEO of Robert A. Stanger & Co., said.

Record RIA M&A activity marks strong start to 2025
Record RIA M&A activity marks strong start to 2025

Sellers shift focus: It's not about succession anymore.

IB+ Data Hub offers strategic edge for U.S. wealth advisors and RIAs advising business clients
IB+ Data Hub offers strategic edge for U.S. wealth advisors and RIAs advising business clients

Platform being adopted by independent-minded advisors who see insurance as a core pillar of their business.

SPONSORED Compliance in real time: Technology's expanding role in RIA oversight

RIAs face rising regulatory pressure in 2025. Forward-looking firms are responding with embedded technology, not more paperwork.

SPONSORED Advisory firms confront crossroads amid historic wealth transfer

As inheritances are set to reshape client portfolios and next-gen heirs demand digital-first experiences, firms are retooling their wealth tech stacks and succession models in real time.