SpaceX accounts for roughly $224 million, or 19.3%, of net assets in the Private Shares Fund (PIIVX) as of March 31, 2026; a concentration that reflects just how dominant a single name can become in a late-stage private vehicle as IPO speculation intensifies around it.
The fund, a $1.16 billion vehicle managed by Liberty Street Advisors that provides secondary market liquidity in venture-backed companies, posted gross sales of approximately $118 million in the first quarter of 2026, the fifth strongest quarter in its 12-year history. Within the portfolio, companies representing more than $600 million, or over 50% of fund net assets, have either taken steps toward or publicly discussed pursuing an IPO or merger and acquisition transaction.
That data lands at a moment when the private markets are watching closely for signs of a broader reopening. Kevin Moss, who co-created and manages the fund, says the structural shift toward longer private stays has fundamentally changed where enterprise value gets created.
"Companies stay private longer because deep pools of late-stage capital including crossover funds, Venture funds, Private Equity Funds, sovereign wealth, and funds like our own let them raise at scale without the disclosure burden and quarterly cadence of public markets," Moss told InvestmentNews in an exclusive interview. "The practical consequence is that a meaningful share of enterprise value is now created before the IPO."
Regulation has reinforced the trend. The JOBS Act of 2012 raised the shareholder threshold that triggers public reporting requirements, materially lowering the pressure to list. For investors, Moss argues that accessing growth increasingly requires a private-markets allocation alongside public equities, rather than treating the IPO as the entry point.
When it comes to what it actually takes for companies like SpaceX and Databricks to move forward with public offerings, Moss says external and internal conditions need to converge simultaneously.
Positive market sentiment, a stable rate environment, public comparables trading at multiples management can defend, and a recent track record of successful tech listings all need to be in place on the outside. Internally, companies need clean financials, a credible path to GAAP profitability, and a forecast they can confidently stand behind.
"Cerebras has already made that leap and was very well received by the marketplace, closing up 68% on the first day of trading, and SpaceX has indicated via their filings that their public debut is fast approaching," Moss said. "When those line up at the same time, the path to a successful IPO becomes much easier."
For advisors trying to gauge where the IPO pipeline stands, Moss points to secondary market activity as one of the more reliable real-time signals available.
"Tightening bid-ask spreads, rising clearing prices relative to the last primary round, and growing transaction volume typically point to improving sentiment and a shorter runway to an IPO," he said. "The reverse could be seen with widening spreads and discounts to the last round, which usually shows up well before a company publicly delays its listing."
Those signals directly shape how the fund positions itself, identifying entry points in late-stage names where pricing and timing are converging ahead of a public debut.
Macroeconomic conditions remain a major variable throughout. Lower rates lift the present value of long-duration cash flows and pull public multiples up, narrowing the gap between a company's last private mark and what public markets will pay. Stable macro conditions reduce the risk of pricing a deal into a selloff.
"When rates are high, multiples compressed, or volatility elevated, companies generally prefer to raise privately and wait," Moss said.
For advisors, the core argument Moss makes is that pre-IPO exposure and post-IPO investing are complementary rather than interchangeable and the entry price differential can be significant.
"There can be a big difference between the price of last round of financing before the IPO and the IPO price and then the IPO price can be different than the first trade price available in the public markets," he said.
At a structural level, the two products differ materially. Private-company shares are illiquid, priced infrequently, and disclosed under a much narrower information regime. Public shares are liquid, continuously priced, and subject to full SEC reporting. Holding periods, valuation methodology, and the path to exit differ accordingly.
Moss says advisors generally treat the two as complementary sleeves within a portfolio rather than substitutes, while, on risk, he doesn't minimize the structural considerations for retail investors.
"At a high level, the structural considerations are concentration, illiquidity, valuation uncertainty between funding rounds, and a longer and less certain path to any exit," he said. "Sector dynamics layer on top of that including capital intensity in AI and aerospace, and enterprise-software cycles tied to IT budgets, but the underlying structural considerations apply across the asset class."
On the prospects for a 2026 IPO reopening, Moss is cautiously optimistic but specific about what needs to happen. He expects the year to be more active than the prior two but says a full reopening hinges on the first cohort of large listings holding up after pricing.
The signals worth watching are aftermarket performance of recent IPOs, S-1 filings from the most-anticipated names, secondary-market pricing tightening toward last-round marks, and a stable rate path.
"Momentum across those four together is what would mark a genuine reopening rather than a handful of one-off deals," he said.
For the Private Shares Fund, that backdrop translates into positioning in companies moving toward a public listing, giving investors a way to participate in value creation before it reaches the public market. Whether the macro conditions hold through the second half of 2026 will go a long way toward determining how many of those $600 million in IPO-adjacent holdings actually make it across the line.
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