The Iran conflict has reshaped the global risk landscape in ways that will outlast any ceasefire, according to BlackRock's latest geopolitical risk dashboard, which introduces energy security as a new high-rated threat and warns that the fallout is already rivaling the worst energy shocks of the modern era.
The BlackRock Investment Institute's May 2026 update elevates energy security to a standalone risk category, citing disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz that have already displaced more than 1 billion barrels of crude and roughly one-fifth of global LNG supply, describing the episode as "the most significant energy crisis since the 1970s," one that has inflated energy prices globally and created acute shortages of refined products, particularly jet fuel.
In March, IEA member states agreed their largest-ever coordinated release of emergency oil reserves in an attempt to stabilize markets; a withdrawal that surpassed even the 2022 response to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Across Southeast Asia, governments have announced emergency measures to address shortages and floated a regional oil-sharing framework.
BlackRock's analysts expect the crisis to accelerate a structural shift already underway, pushing countries toward what the firm calls resilience economies, built around self-reliance, redundancy and diversification rather than efficiency alone.
The firm's Middle East regional war risk retains a high likelihood rating, with a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran holding while broader diplomatic talks proceed. BlackRock notes that neither side is seeking a return to full-scale conflict, but that negotiations are moving slowly and unevenly.
Even a framework agreement to reopen the Strait would not immediately restore pre-conflict conditions, the firm says, while a comprehensive deal covering Iran's nuclear program remains a distant prospect. As of late May, traffic through the Strait remains severely impaired, and BlackRock does not expect Iran to easily relinquish its leverage over the chokepoint.
The conflict is also driving what the firm characterizes as a political, economic and structural reset for Gulf states, with substantial capital expenditure requirements ahead. In Lebanon, a fragile ceasefire with Israel is holding despite violations, while Gaza reconstruction and governance talks have stalled since last year's ceasefire agreement.
On the trade front, BlackRock’s global trade protectionism risk has a medium likelihood following a series of legal setbacks for the Trump administration's tariff agenda.
The US Supreme Court invalidated tariffs imposed under emergency powers in February, triggering a refund process the firm expects to unfold slowly. In May, the Court of International Trade ruled that across-the-board 10% tariffs imposed under Section 122 authority are unlawful, though that decision has been stayed pending appeal.
Despite the legal headwinds, BlackRock expects the administration to pursue additional tariffs through Section 232 and Section 301 investigations, which it views as more durable instruments. The firm is closely watching the scheduled July review of the USMCA trilateral trade agreement and anticipates a shift toward more bilateral arrangements between the US, Mexico and Canada.
Global trade flows, the firm notes, are rewiring rather than reversing — with total global trade exceeding a record $35 trillion last year even amid rising protectionism.
US-China strategic competition holds a medium likelihood rating. A summit between Presidents Trump and Xi in Beijing on May 14-15 produced limited commercial deals but no major breakthroughs, with both sides signaling a desire to manage tensions rather than resolve them.
BlackRock describes the commercially based détente as narrow, fragile and vulnerable to disruption — particularly on defense and security issues. Taiwan remains a flashpoint, with China continuing military, economic and diplomatic pressure on the island.
Transatlantic relations are also rated medium risk, with the firm describing a complete reset in US-Europe ties under the second Trump administration. President Trump announced in May that the US would withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany over the next six to twelve months.
BlackRock sees Europe accelerating diversification away from the US through new trade agreements, additional defense spending and diplomatic outreach to Beijing — though it stops short of expecting a full substitution of the transatlantic relationship.
Politically, the firm flags renewed instability in the UK that could threaten Prime Minister Keir Starmer's position, while noting that Péter Magyar's landslide victory over Viktor Orbán in Hungary could help repair EU-Hungary relations and unlock previously blocked funding.
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