Jobs data comes in strong, crushing estimates. This is what it means for advisors

The latest employment data came in much better-than-expected early Friday, providing advisors and their clients another positive data point on the strength of the U.S. economy.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 115,000 in April and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists surveyed by Reuters were looking for nonfarm payrolls to increase 62,000 and for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.3%. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal had expected the addition of 55,000 net new jobs and an unemployment rate at 4.3%.

There were job gains in healthcare, transportation and warehousing, and the retail trade, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said, while noting that Federal government employment continued to decline.

The S&P 500 index is rising in the wake of the better-than expected jobs data, climbing 0.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.2%.

Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management says that advisors can take heart from the jobs numbers. “The economy is so much better than what the doom crew has been saying,” he said, in a statement. “There are a lot of headwinds – higher oil prices, sticky inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates – and yet the labor market is adding jobs, GDP is growing and corporate profits are expanding at a rapid pace.”

Last week the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that GDP increased 2% in the first quarter of 2026, boosted by investment, exports, consumer spending, and government spending. The rate of GDP growth jumped from the 0.5% increase in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Northlight Asset Management’s Zaccarelli also pointed to a strong earnings season that has lifted the stock market, even after a period of market volatility linked to the Iran conflict. “The stock market has been running to new highs and for those that were scratching their heads given all of the geopolitical uncertainty and supply shocks, the short answer is stock prices follow earnings and – at least for now – earnings are growing too quickly for the market to ignore,” he said, in the statement. However, he also urged investors and advisors not to get carried away. “Just as we tried to stay grounded when things looked bleak as the Strait was closed and the stalemate in Iran seemed intractable, we would also caution against getting overly optimistic that the coast is clear and maximum risk should be taken.”

April's jobs data followed strong numbers in March, which saw total nonfarm payroll employment increase by 178,000, although this figure has been upwardly revised to 185,000. "A stronger-than-expected April jobs report gave investors a second straight upside surprise, a welcome development after an uneven stretch for the labor market," said Bret Kenwell, U.S. investment analyst at eToro, in a statement. Investors, Kenwell added, should welcome this steadier labor market. "Strength in the labor market helps support a healthy consumer, and consumer spending remains the backbone of the US economy," he said.

The latest jobs number also broke a cycle of alternating nonfarm payroll data stretching back into 2025, according to Jeff Schulze, head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments. “The April jobs release broke the nearly year-long streak of alternative weak (negative) and strong (positive) prints, coming in at +115k jobs following last month’s upwardly-revised +185k,” he said, in a statement. “Private payrolls continued to show strength, suggesting that the economy is not yet feeling substantial strains resulting from elevated uncertainty in the Middle East.”

Friday’s jobs report should also provide reassurance for Federal Reserve officials that the labor market is on solid footing and could withstand a prolonged period of stable or even higher interest rates should the pickup in inflation warrant, according to Schulze. “The bar was high for this print to move markets, but we think today’s data is a modest positive to risk assets given the supportive read-through to consumer spending and economic growth more broadly.”

"Our baseline FOMC view is unchanged on the release," said David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Group, in a note. "As we have been highlighting for some time, we see the next move as a hike with our baseline timing being in 1H27."

The Federal Reserve recently stuck to its path of keeping its policy rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, once again shrugging off pressure from President Donald Trump to lower interest rates.The central bank made three consecutive rate cuts last year, but outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell has resisted Trump’s calls to slash rates further.