Earnings, then a lockup expiration: Two SpaceX catalysts advisors can't ignore

SpaceX will report its first earnings as a public company on Tuesday — and just a couple of of days later, on Aug. 6, more than 900 million shares could hit the market as the company's post-IPO lockup expires. Together, the two events could set the tone for SpaceX stock after a volatile first month of trading: shares popped more than 19% on their Nasdaq debut in June before falling over 23% since

SpaceX ended its first day of Nasdaq trading with an eye-watering valuation that topped $2 trillion although that valuation now sits at $1.43 trillion. Still, there are big expectations for its results after market close on Tuesday - analysts expect the company to report first-quarter revenue of $6.9 billion, according to Yahoo Finance.

Andrew Chanin, CEO of ProcureAM, issuer of the Procure Space ETF (Ticker: UFO), says that there will be plenty for advisors to look out for on Tuesday. “They should be looking for everything, this is the first time that the company is providing its quarterly earnings since becoming a publicly traded company back at the end of June,” he told InvestmentNews.

STARLINK AND STARSHIP

Advisors and investors will be looking for any detailed breakouts they can get from SpaceX’s many verticals, according to Chanin. “For Starlink, people are going to want to see users and revenues … for launch, they are going to want to see any indications of full commercial readiness for Starship,” he said, adding that people will also be looking for any updates and findings from the most recent Starlink launch.

The thirteenth Starship test launch took place on July 24, and saw SpaceX successfully deploy 20 Starlink V3 satellites. “Starship has the potential to be very important for the overall space business for the company,” said Chanin.

In the wake of SpaceX’s merger with xAI earlier this year, Chanin says that people will want to know more detail about the company’s data center spending, and what its net loss is from spending versus revenue.

As of the close of trading on July 31, SpaceX was the Procure Space ETF’s seventh largest holding.

SPACEXAI SUBSIDIARY

Other observers will also be closely monitoring comments about the SpaceXAI subsidiary. For Paul Golding, senior digital infrastructure and payments analyst at Macquarie, the company’s outlook will be key. “Importantly, the recent AI cloud wins are not expected to be fully reflected in 2Q results,” he said, in a note last week. “Beyond AI, commentary on outlook and news relevant to Launch and Connectivity could be key drivers as well,” he added. “Outlook remarks could help address concerns around execution and AI monetization, with this likely more important than Q2 actuals.”

Aside from this week’s first earnings results, there are other SpaceX milestones looming on the horizon. ProcureAM’s Chanin also notes the expiration of the SpaceX share “lockup” window is looming, which could put more than 900 million shares on the market. “Do the holders of those shares want to sell, or do they hold those shares?” he said. “Just because the lockup window has expired – does that mean that people are racing to get out or do they have longer term interest in holding onto those shares.” The lockup window expires on Aug. 6, Reuters reports.

Whatever happens over the coming days - the space industry represents a massive opportunity. McKinsey projects that the so-called space economy will be worth $1.8 trillion by 2035, up from $630 billion in 2023. This includes both “backbone” applications such as those for satellites, launchers, and services such as broadcast TV and GPS, according to McKinsey, as well as “reach applications.” To illustrate the latter, in a 2024 report, McKinsey used the example of Uber, whose business relies on a combination of satellite signals and chips inside smartphones to connect drivers and rider and guide them to their destination.