Citi sees US ETF assets topping $25 trillion by 2030 as active funds gain ground

The US exchange-traded fund industry could see its assets under management more than double by the end of the decade, according to a new outlook from Citigroup.

The Wall Street firm's base case projects US ETF assets will reach $25 trillion by 2030 and $42 trillion by 2035, a sharp upgrade from its earlier estimates of $19 trillion and $29 trillion for those milestones. US-listed ETF assets stood at roughly $10.4 trillion as of March 2025, according to the firm.

Drew Pettit, US equity and ETF strategist at Citigroup, said in the report that the firm expects active ETFs' share of overall ETF assets to more than double from 10% to 21% over the next decade.

"Underlying the impressive industry growth story is the surge in active ETFs. We expect this tailwind to persist," Pettit said. "Our base case expects active's market share of ETF [assets under management] to double in ten years as these products gain greater share of industry flows."

Though the updated projections are more bullish than previous ones, Citi noted the industry would be entering a more mature growth phase where organic flows and market performance play a more balanced role than in the prior decade.

Active ETFs, which seek to beat a benchmark or achieve a specific investment outcome rather than simply tracking an index, are among the fastest-growing corners of the ETF market. They have drawn investors with flexible strategies and comparatively lower costs. Pettit and his team flagged particular opportunities in niche strategy ETFs, core bond and equity portfolios, and specialized themes like dividend investing.

A separate ETF report by PwC this year, drawing on a survey of 72 executives, echoed that outlook. More than one-third of US respondents to the survey expect US ETF assets to more than double and reach $25 trillion or more by June 2030. Globally, 60% of those surveyed expect active ETF assets to more than double to at least $4 trillion by June 2030, up from $1.7 trillion at the end of 2025.

Sixty percent of executives surveyed by PwC expect global active ETF assets under management to more than double to at least $4 trillion by 2030. Source: PwC Global ETF Survey 2025.

Another report by Brown Brothers Harriman has higher hopes for the space by 2033, when it expects active ETF assets would grow to $10 trillion.

The Citi outlook also comes as the defined outcome ETF segment generates its own growth narrative. Research from Cerulli Associates in partnership with Innovator found that defined outcome ETFs, which use options strategies to offer downside buffers in exchange for capped upside, could quadruple in assets to more than $334 billion by 2030, growing at a 29% to 35% compound annual rate. That would far outpace the broader ETF industry's expected 15% growth rate over the same period.

"Traditional risk mitigation strategies offer diversification and stability, yet they often fall short on providing the certainty that clients increasingly seek," said Daniil Shapiro, a director at Cerulli.

Other tailwinds for the broader ETF market include product innovation, more streamlined launch regulations, adoption of sophisticated strategies, and growing demand for tax-efficient investment vehicles. US equity-focused ETFs alone have attracted more than $75.8 billion in inflows so far in 2026, building on more than $1.1 trillion in flows over the previous two years, per LSEG Lipper data.