The Great Wealth Transfer: Separating the myth from the reality

The Great Wealth Transfer is a headline-grabbing theme when it comes to wealth management – the concept of a vast amount of accumulated wealth changing hands over the coming decades, spelling good news for clients, and, of course, their advisors.

Certainly, the sums cited within the context of the Great Wealth Transfer are mind-boggling – in 2024 Cerulli Associates projected that $124 trillion in wealth will be transferred through 2048.

But Dr. Jim Grubman, owner of Family Wealth Consulting, and author of “Strangers in Paradise” and “Wealth 3.0” thinks that the transfer of generational wealth should be viewed with a critical eye. “It’s much less dramatic than what a lot of people think,” he told InvestmentNews.

Grubman explained that the roots of the “Great Wealth Transfer” concept can be found in 1999 research at Boston College. The study: "Millionaires and the Millennium: New Estimates of the Forthcoming Wealth Transfer and the Prospects for a Golden Age of Philanthropy” estimated that the U.S. wealth transfer between 1998 and 2052 would be at least $41 trillion. However, the report’s authors said that it could be as high as $136 trillion.

“We have got to remember that the dotcom era was very dramatic,” said Grubman. “Between 92 and 2000 a huge amount of wealth creation occurred with the tech companies.” This, combined with increasing longevity, really fueled the concept of the Great Wealth Transfer in the early 2000s, he added.

A Moving Target

But while large numbers undoubtedly grab attention, Grubman thinks that the Great Wealth Transfer should be viewed as more of a moving target. “Basically, it’s all projections - we don’t know how much money will transfer in 2040, because we don’t know how much money there will be in total in 2040.”

“The way we look at the number needs to be looked at in the broader context,” he said. “Has the pattern of inheriting really changed? The answer on that piece is no.”

Even inheritance trends should be viewed against a wider societal backdrop. In 2025, inherited homes accounted for a record 7% of all U.S. property transfers, and totaled 340,000 properties, according to Cotality, formerly CoreLogic. However, this is still a relatively small number compared to the approximately 30 million homes owned by householders aged 65 and above, according to Realtor.com.

Then there are the sums involved in the Great Wealth Transfer itself. “Most of it is back-end loaded – it’s not passing $150 trillion tomorrow,” Grubman said. Rather, he thinks that about $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion is being transferred every year.

Specifically, Grubman pointed to Federal Reserve data that U.S. household net worth hit $154.3 trillion in 2023.  “$1.5 trillion is one percent, so one percent is passing,” he said. “Let’s say next year is $1.8 trillion – one percent of a bigger number is a bigger number … it’s not because anything has changed in inheritance, it’s because the denominator has changed.”

It's Not About Cash

Furthermore, the Great Wealth Transfer should not be viewed in purely cash terms, according to Grubman. “It’s not cash - remember, who has most of the wealth in any society? The top one percent,” he said. “Much of that, number one, is ownership shares in companies, which is not liquid - number 2, it’s mostly in trust.”

The inheritance disparities across society are certainly stark. Data released by the Federal Reserve in 2020 said that the average U.S. inheritance is $46,200, although this rises to $719,000 for the wealthiest 1% of the population.

Zach Mangels, senior vice president and advisor at Wealthspire Advisors also doesn’t see the Great Wealth Transfer as a singular event. “What I am not sure is going to happen is if it’s going to be this massive, immediate wealth transfer, that just kind of happens,” he said. “One day, the next generation wakes up and they're invested with all this extra money? It feels like it's more of a slower move.”

For advisors, the practical implication could be less about timing an eventual transfer and more about designing for one that may never arrive as a single event. That could mean stress-testing retirement and estate plans that assume a lump-sum inheritance date, or opening a conversation with aging clients about gifting a portion of assets now — while they're alive to see the impact — rather than waiting on a transfer that's likely to be gradual, partial, and tied up in illiquid holdings.

Making a Difference Today

While wealth will be changing hands “somewhere out in the future”, Mangels also talks to clients about making a difference in their children’s lives today. “Where it really is impactful and makes a difference is if you can receive some help in your 30s or 40s or 50s,” he said.