President Donald Trump’s imminent choice to replace Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve has become the axis around which global risk sentiment is turning, with markets and wealth managers treating Friday morning’s announcement as a macro event in its own right.
Trump is expected to tap former Fed governor Kevin Warsh for the top job, according to people involved in the process cited by CNN, capping a months-long search that narrowed to four finalists. Warsh met with Trump at the White House on Thursday, and officials have begun preparing for his nomination, though aides caution that nothing is final until the president speaks.
The other contenders in the final round were Fed governor Christopher Waller, National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder, according to Associated Press reporting. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent led the search, underscoring how closely the White House has managed a decision that would traditionally be framed as technocratic.
Trump has repeatedly signaled that his pick will be a market-savvy figure with deep Wall Street credibility. “It’s going to be, somebody that is very respected, somebody that’s known to everybody in the financial world. And I think it’s going to be a very good choice. I hope so,” he told reporters Thursday night as he arrived at the Washington premiere of “Melania,” a documentary about the first lady. He added that “a lot of people think that this is somebody that could have been there a few years ago,” a remark widely interpreted as a nod to Warsh, who was a finalist in the 2017 search that yielded Powell.
Trump has relentlessly criticized Powell over what he views as insufficiently rapid rate cuts, even as inflation remains elevated. The Justice Department’s investigation into Powell’s testimony about costly Fed headquarters renovations has further politicized the central bank and sharpened questions about its independence.
Markets are already reacting. US equity futures fell ahead of the announcement, with S&P 500 and Dow futures down roughly 0.6% to 0.8%, while global equities and commodities traded mixed as investors de-risked into the event.
Powell’s term as chair ends in May, but his term on the Board of Governors runs through 2028, and he has not said whether he will step down. If he remains, Trump may have less scope to rapidly reshape the board’s balance, complicating efforts to align Fed policy more closely with the White House’s growth agenda.
The composition and signaling of the next chair will inform duration and curve positioning, equity sector tilts, and dollar exposure. Until the president steps to the lectern and the Senate’s reaction comes into view, the Fed succession itself is the risk event — and the central question for portfolios built around the path of US rates.
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