The latest projection from the Social Security Board of Trustees estimates that the combined Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance trust funds will dry up in 2034 – the same timeline as last year.
At that point, 83% of scheduled benefits would be payable, according to the new trustees report released this week.
The combined reserves of the OASI and DI trust funds declined by $160 billion in 2025 to $2.56 trillion, according to the 2026 Annual Report to Congress.
The OASI trust fund alone – which pays retirement benefits – faces a more pressing deadline as reserves are projected to be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032. At that point, 78% of benefits would remain payable.
Total expenditures from the combined trust funds amounted to $1.61 trillion in 2025, against total income, including interest, of $1.45 trillion – a gap that has widened steadily since costs first exceeded non-interest income in 2010. The projected actuarial deficit over the 75-year long-range period is 4.42% of taxable payroll, up from 3.82% in last year's report.
"To protect the promise of Social Security, it is important for lawmakers and the Social Security Administration to work together to ensure the trust funds continue to provide financial stability now and for future generations," Frank J. Bisignano, Commissioner of Social Security, said in a statement.
According to the newly released 2026 Social Security Shortfall Index by New York-based retirement savings provider PensionBee, a 22% cut to monthly Social Security checks – the reduction projected once the OASI fund runs dry – would translate into a monthly income reduction of $458 for new retirees receiving $2,080 monthly.
Taking the math further, that's around $5,491 less per year, which by PensionBee's calculations would require pre-retirees today to accumulate an estimated $137,280 in additional personal savings, assuming a 4% annual withdrawal rate.
With less time in the market, a 55-year-old would have to save roughly 3.5 times more per month than a 25-year-old worker, even though the younger hypothetical worker faces deeper projected cuts over time.
PensionBee's projections, which draw on the SSA's own year-by-year income and cost data from the 2026 Trustees Report, show the deficit widening with each successive generation: today's 25-year-olds – Gen Z workers retiring around 2068 – face a projected 33% benefit reduction, requiring an estimated $205,500 in additional savings to offset the gap.
Earlier this year, the Congressionabl Budget Office estimated that the OASI trust fund could be exhausted by 2032 – one year sooner than it calculated before.
This year's projections also reflect the impact of recent federal legislation. The 2025 Social Security Fairness Act, which expanded benefits for certain public-sector workers, was baked into last year's report. The 2026 figures incorporate the tax changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill – including the permanent extension of the 2017 tax cuts and an enhanced senior deduction – which reduce the income tax revenue collected on Social Security benefits.
Unless legislators on Capitol Hill take action, the projected depletion within a decade will have a profound impact on the roughy 40% of Americans PensionBee says rely on Social Security for the majority of their retirement income, and for one in seven that count on it for 90% of their total income.
“For millions of Americans, Social Security is the foundation of retirement,” Romi Savova, founder and CEO of PensionBee, said in a statement. “Every year Congress delays action, the catch-up cost shifts further onto individual workers, most of whom paid into a system for decades. While the overall program is safe, cuts to benefits are shockingly costly.”
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