While political pundits and pollsters continue their hand-wringing and soul searching over how they could have so badly missed the outcome of the presidential election, Jared Tjaden is enjoying his 15 minutes of fame.
Mr. Tjaden, a 31-year-old Fairview, Ore.-based financial adviser with
Edward Jones called the election, right down the total electoral college tally a full two weeks before the Nov. 8 vote.
That was about the time
most political watchers were claiming Donald Trump was about to lose in a landslide to Hillary Clinton.
Mr. Tjaden, who describes himself as a casual political observer, submitted the only correct electoral map among 8,340 entries in a
Wall Street Journal contest to pick the outcome of the election.
While most professional poll watchers and political analysts
were caught flat-footed and left red-faced by the election of Republican and political novice Mr. Trump over Democrat and political veteran Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Tjaden said he focused on how and where the candidates were campaigning and what the voters were saying.
“I looked at the states that I thought were in play and noticed how much time Trump was spending there as the election got closer, and I didn't see much of Hillary in those places,” Mr. Tjaden said.
His strategy, which included monitoring the electoral map projections listed on
RealClearPolitics.com, involved considering any state where the candidates were within five percentage points to be up for grabs.
“I had more swing states than the original Wall Street Journal map,” Mr. Tjaden said. “I was more open minded, and I think that was key, but there was also a little luck involved.”
Mr. Tjaden, who served more than nine years in the Marine Corps, including tours in Iraq and Afghanistan, has been with Edward Jones for just 17 months, and has been working with clients for just eight months.
As he toyed with the electoral map, he said it came down to two possible scenarios. One involved Mrs. Clinton winning with 272 electoral votes, but he went with his gut and the winning map of Mr. Trump winning with 306 electoral votes.
Winning the contest didn't come with any kind of monetary prize, but it has given Mr. Tjaden some local fame.
“I guess the biggest thing was when I told my story at a meeting of the Gresham Area Chamber of Commerce,” he said. “They gave me credit for getting a whole room full of people to applaud about the election of Donald Trump.”
