Fed set to keep rates on hold, delay cuts in the near future

Federal Reserve officials are poised to keep interest rates steady for a sixth consecutive meeting and signal no plans for cuts in the near future after higher-than-expected inflation.

The Federal Open Market Committee will hold the target range for its benchmark rate at 5.25% to 5.5% — a two-decade high first reached in July — at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting Wednesday. The rate decision, and possibly an announcement on the pace of its balance-sheet reduction program, will be released at 2 p.m. in Washington. Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference 30 minutes later.

Policymakers are reluctant to begin lowering borrowing costs until they’re certain inflation is closing in on 2%, the rate they see as appropriate for a healthy economy. While they had penciled in three 2024 rate cuts as recently as March, Powell is likely to indicate those plans are on hold and will depend on an improvement in inflation.

“The message will be wait-and-see and policy needs more time to work,” said Michael Gapen, head of US economics at Bank of America Corp. “The answer to stickier inflation is you just stay where you are for longer. ‘We’ll be on hold until the cows come home if we have to.’”

The tone of the post-meeting policy statement and press conference was likely signaled by Powell in an April 16 speech, in which the Fed chief said rates could be higher for longer and the central bank would keep policy restrictive “as long as needed.”

What Bloomberg Economics Says...

“We expect Powell to make a hawkish pivot at the April 30-May 1 meeting. At the minimum, he’ll likely indicate the median FOMC participant now expects ‘less’ cuts this year. In a more hawkish direction, he could hint at a chance of no cuts — or even suggest a hike might be on the table, though not the current baseline.”

— Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger and Estelle Ou, economists

FOMC STATEMENT

Fed officials may tweak the first paragraph of their post-meeting policy statement to acknowledge that progress on inflation stalled in the first three months of the year, following a report showing a third disappointing month for its underlying measure of prices. That gauge climbed 0.3% in March and 2.8% from a year earlier, the same as in February.

“Memorializing it in the statement puts an exclamation point on it,” said Morgan Stanley Chief US Economist Ellen Zentner. “There has been a substantial amount of improvement in the year-over-year pace of inflation, but it has slowed or stalled in recent months.”

Still, Zentner doesn’t expect officials will change guidance in the statement implying the next rate move will be a rate cut. 

BALANCE SHEET

The committee will probably reveal plans to slow the pace at which it’s currently unwinding its $7.4 trillion balance sheet, a program known as quantitative tightening. Officials “generally favored” cutting the pace of reduction roughly in half, and “fairly soon,” minutes from their March 19-20 meeting showed.

DISSENTS

No dissents are expected. While some Fed officials have been more vocal about their reluctance to cut interest rates than others, they are more likely to dissent against an eventual cut rather than the wording of Wednesday’s statement.

PRESS CONFERENCE

Powell might acknowledge that a cut in June is off the table, but his language at the post-meeting press conference around the possibility of cuts later in the year will be important to parse.

Any reluctance to suggest cuts are still in the offing for 2024 — such as the use of the word “whether” — might be a clue, Gapen said.

Powell could also be asked about reports that former President Donald Trump’s allies are quietly drafting proposals that would curb the central bank’s independence if he wins a second term. The Fed chief is likely to emphasize the importance of Fed independence and reiterate that politics aren’t a factor in policy decisions, while avoiding commenting on any candidate.

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