A seven-quarter run of record-setting deal activity in the registered investment advisor industry is under threat, as macroeconomic headwinds and geopolitical turbulence caused advisors to delay sale decisions and pushed third-quarter transaction volume sharply lower, according to new data from DeVoe & Company.
The San Francisco-based M&A consulting firm, presenting findings at its 2026 DeVoe M&A+ Succession Summit in Huntington Beach, California, on September 24, reported 72 RIA transactions announced through September 22, marking a 19 percent drop from the 89 deals announced during the same period in 2025.
If the pace holds, 2026 would fall below last year's annual total, ending one of the most sustained stretches of consolidation activity the industry has seen. The data marks a notable reversal after a strong start to the year.
The first quarter of 2026 produced 93 transactions, matching the all-time quarterly high and running 24 percent above the same period last year. Activity then slipped to 74 deals in the second quarter before contracting further in the third.
David DeVoe, founder and chief executive of DeVoe & Company, said the deceleration reflects decisions, or non-decisions, made 6 to 18 months ago, when a series of economic and geopolitical disruptions reshaped the environment in which advisors were evaluating whether to sell.
"The transactions announced on a given day are the result of a decision to sell, which came 6 to 18 months ago," DeVoe said. "The volatility and distraction created by tariffs, the war with Iran, gasoline price surges and other economic shocks over the last 18 months caused some advisors to pause before moving forward with a sale. That hesitation is now emerging in our transaction data."
The dynamic is structural to how RIA deals get done. A professionally managed sale process typically takes around six months from engagement to announcement. Advisors who navigate the sale process without an investment banker often take between 12 and 18 months. That lag means announced deal counts function as a trailing indicator of seller sentiment, not a real-time snapshot.
The timeline aligns with two distinct periods of market stress. The CBOE Volatility Index, commonly tracked as Wall Street's measure of near-term market fear, spiked following tariff announcements in April 2025, reaching levels unseen since the onset of COVID-19.
A second wave of uncertainty followed the US-Iran conflict in March 2026. Combined, those shocks appear to have prompted a meaningful number of RIA owners to defer sale discussions.
"During periods of volatility, advisors appropriately turn their attention to clients," DeVoe said. "Major strategic decisions move down the priority list. RIA owners have not abandoned their plans to sell. They simply delayed the timing."
The third-quarter contraction stands in contrast to the strength that characterized the first half of 2026, when RIA M&A shattered records with deal count nearing a 40 percent jump from the prior year, according to Berkshire Global Advisors. A separate analysis from Echelon Partners placed first-half volume at 262 transactions, well ahead of the 220 recorded over the same stretch in 2025.
The asset figures tell a parallel story. Acquired RIA assets nearly doubled in the first half of 2026, according to Fidelity's midyear report, with total client assets involved in transactions jumping 88 percent to $343 billion. That figure reflects a shift toward larger deals even as headline transaction counts softened; the median size of acquired RIAs rose from $517 million to $630 million in assets under management, Fidelity found.
Private equity has remained the dominant force on the buy side throughout the year. Sponsor-backed acquirers accounted for approximately 85 percent of strategic acquisitions in the first half of 2026, according to Berkshire, a pattern consistent with the trajectory seen in recent years as private equity's footprint in the RIA industry was projected to keep expanding heading into 2026.
Despite the third-quarter weakness, DeVoe & Company stopped short of signaling a structural shift. The firm cited a pipeline of more than 15 transactions it expects to close within the next six months as evidence that underlying deal flow remains intact.
"The market did not lose its long-term momentum, it likely experienced a pause in the formation of new transactions," DeVoe said. "Although September is on track to be an extremely weak month, we expect activity to accelerate over the next several months and quarters."
The firm pointed to persistent structural forces as the basis for that view: an aging advisor population with unresolved succession, continued buyer appetite for quality firms, and the competitive and operational advantages that scale provides in a consolidating market.
Wells Fargo adds two bank-channel recruits, UBS lands a JPMorgan Chase veteran, and a multi-family office lifts Atlas past $1B
“The state comes down on you in years when you make 40% returns for clients,” said Bill Swayne, the advisor and son of Candace Swayne.
The Independent broker-dealer giant has had “active conversations” with the Claude maker, which is days away from its expected IPO
For Gen X clients entering life after work, answering the financial question isn't enough to solve the entire retirement equation.
Tools from Grantd, Income Lab and Healthspan Wealth aim to keep RIAs involved in clients’ biggest money decisions
Growing wealth, evolving priorities, and untapped opportunities are reshaping how women approach long-term investing.
Knighthead Life entered the market with a competitive MYGA. A strong launch earned advisor confidence and paved the way for FIAs.
