Bessent says overall US recession is not ahead, predicts 'very strong' 2026

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent delivered a bullish outlook on the US economy while defending the Trump administration’s approach to inflation, tariffs, and geopolitical risks.

In a wide-ranging interview on NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday, he told moderator Kristen Welker, that key components of the administration’s economic agenda, ranging from border policy to trade agreements, are already easing pricing pressures and setting the stage for stronger growth in 2026.

Bessent pointed to what he called the “three I’s” that had been “killing Americans”: immigration, interest rates, and inflation and stated that the administration’s border actions, falling interest rates, and easing energy costs have begun improving affordability.

However, when Welker pressed Bessent on rising costs for staples such as coffee and bananas and noted the climb in inflation from 2.3% in April to 3% by September, Bessent rejected the suggestion that inflation had risen meaningfully and insisted the administration would not dismiss Americans’ lived experience.

He attributed persistent price pressures to services, not tariffs, arguing that “imported goods inflation has been flat.” Recent tariff rollbacks on more than 200 food products, he said, aligned with ongoing trade deals with Latin American nations.

Bessent acknowledged strain in interest-rate-sensitive sectors, particularly housing, which he described as having been “in a recession” but cited stronger home sales in October, lower gasoline prices, and declining Thanksgiving dinner costs as evidence that “prices are starting to come down.”

He also blamed the “longest government shutdown in history” for a 1.5% GDP hit but dismissed concerns of a broader downturn.

Looking ahead to next year, Bessent predicted “very strong non-inflationary growth,” crediting OBBBA which includes tax changes such as eliminating taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security income. He forecast “substantial refunds” for working families in early 2026 and pointed to new US manufacturing investment including Boeing’s expansion in Charleston.