Advisors weigh potentially weaker labor picture in wake of delayed jobs report

Advisors weigh potentially weaker labor picture in wake of delayed jobs report
From left: Dustin Cali, Clint Sorenson
The January jobs report may be pushed back due to the partial government shutdown, but that doesn't mean wealth managers don't have it on their minds.
FEB 04, 2026

Financial advisors waiting for the monthly employment report to assess the strength of the economy will have to wait a little longer.

But that doesn’t mean they don’t have strong opinions on the subject.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on Monday that the January 2026 employment report, originally scheduled for release on Friday will be pushed back due to a partial government shutdown. 

The December 2025 jobs report, released Jan. 9, 2026, indicated a cooling labor market, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 50,000, missing expectations. The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%. The January 2026 jobs report is also expected to show a moderating labor market with estimates hovering around 60,000 to 170,000 new jobs.

In addition to the main jobs report, the December 2025 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and the Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment report are also delayed, marking the second time in four months that a federal shutdown has interrupted critical economic data.

That said, if payroll growth is revised sharply lower when the data is finally released, Rex Berger, private wealth Advisor at Generation Capital Advisors won’t let a weaker labor picture change his bullish outlook. If anything, he says it will amplify it.

“Downward labor revisions eliminate the ‘labor market is too hot objection and fast-track rate cuts. Beyond cuts, the Fed's balance sheet expansion, quietly resumed for repo market support, represents real monetary stimulus. Combined with lower rates reducing Treasury's interest expense, this creates fiscal dry powder for Washington to deploy,” Berger said.

Meanwhile, Clint Sorenson, chief investment officer at Ascentis Asset Management, considers jobs numbers a lagging indicator rather than a recession signal on their own. In his view, leading indicators have been negative year over year, suggesting decelerating growth.

“Job growth has halted, consistent with these trends. We expect unemployment to continue rising,” Sorenson said.

Sorenson also believes that the Fed is behind the curve and should cut rates more aggressively. 

“Labor market trends are confirming this view. The Fed Funds rate remains above the 2-year Treasury yield, indicating that policy is not yet supportive of growth. While policy is moving in the right direction, further action is needed. Labor market trends are confirming this view,” Sorenson said.

Elsewhere, Dustin Cali, wealth advisor at Praetego Private Wealth, a Sanctuary Wealth partner firm, says a sharp downward revision would tell him the labor market is weaker than the market has priced in.

“It’s not a recession call on its own, but it’s a meaningful shift from ‘resilient growth’ to ‘late-cycle slowdown.’ If the revision is large and persistent, it forces investors to reassess the growth regime and tighten up risk,” Cali said.

Stressed Cali: “From a portfolio standpoint, I’m not trying to win the next 48 hours of market reaction. I’m making sure clients are positioned to withstand a weaker growth backdrop. That means staying disciplined, leaning into quality, and being more intentional about how much risk we’re carrying.”

Latest News

Veteran Calif. advisor at center of $50M customer complaint sidesteps Morgan Stanley’s clawback
Veteran Calif. advisor at center of $50M customer complaint sidesteps Morgan Stanley’s clawback

Sam Su worked at UBS Financial Services in San Francisco from 2008 to 2023 before jumping to Morgan Stanley.

RIA moves: Beacon Pointe buys $905M firm, ASN lands Commonwealth team
RIA moves: Beacon Pointe buys $905M firm, ASN lands Commonwealth team

Wealthspire’s Ground Control is also expanding in London, adding a business manager focused on music and global touring

Investor alleges Arbor Realty Trust misled market on $1.25B loan mess
Investor alleges Arbor Realty Trust misled market on $1.25B loan mess

The REIT allegedly promised investors a fix while the problem grew by $200M.

When is one fund really a substitute for another?
When is one fund really a substitute for another?

Fund categories are a useful starting point – but they can hide meaningful differences.

John Hancock and Great Gray bring private markets into target-date CITs
John Hancock and Great Gray bring private markets into target-date CITs

New Lifetime Blend+ suite aims to help 401(k) savers build retirement income beyond traditional public market allocations.

SPONSORED Best Practices for Engaging Women Around Alternatives

Growing wealth, evolving priorities, and untapped opportunities are reshaping how women approach long-term investing.

SPONSORED Built on insurance experience to deliver on long-term promises

Knighthead Life entered the market with a competitive MYGA. A strong launch earned advisor confidence and paved the way for FIAs.