Financial advisors waiting for the monthly employment report to assess the strength of the economy will have to wait a little longer.
But that doesn’t mean they don’t have strong opinions on the subject.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on Monday that the January 2026 employment report, originally scheduled for release on Friday will be pushed back due to a partial government shutdown.
The December 2025 jobs report, released Jan. 9, 2026, indicated a cooling labor market, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 50,000, missing expectations. The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%. The January 2026 jobs report is also expected to show a moderating labor market with estimates hovering around 60,000 to 170,000 new jobs.
In addition to the main jobs report, the December 2025 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and the Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment report are also delayed, marking the second time in four months that a federal shutdown has interrupted critical economic data.
That said, if payroll growth is revised sharply lower when the data is finally released, Rex Berger, private wealth Advisor at Generation Capital Advisors won’t let a weaker labor picture change his bullish outlook. If anything, he says it will amplify it.
“Downward labor revisions eliminate the ‘labor market is too hot objection and fast-track rate cuts. Beyond cuts, the Fed's balance sheet expansion, quietly resumed for repo market support, represents real monetary stimulus. Combined with lower rates reducing Treasury's interest expense, this creates fiscal dry powder for Washington to deploy,” Berger said.
Meanwhile, Clint Sorenson, chief investment officer at Ascentis Asset Management, considers jobs numbers a lagging indicator rather than a recession signal on their own. In his view, leading indicators have been negative year over year, suggesting decelerating growth.
“Job growth has halted, consistent with these trends. We expect unemployment to continue rising,” Sorenson said.
Sorenson also believes that the Fed is behind the curve and should cut rates more aggressively.
“Labor market trends are confirming this view. The Fed Funds rate remains above the 2-year Treasury yield, indicating that policy is not yet supportive of growth. While policy is moving in the right direction, further action is needed. Labor market trends are confirming this view,” Sorenson said.
Elsewhere, Dustin Cali, wealth advisor at Praetego Private Wealth, a Sanctuary Wealth partner firm, says a sharp downward revision would tell him the labor market is weaker than the market has priced in.
“It’s not a recession call on its own, but it’s a meaningful shift from ‘resilient growth’ to ‘late-cycle slowdown.’ If the revision is large and persistent, it forces investors to reassess the growth regime and tighten up risk,” Cali said.
Stressed Cali: “From a portfolio standpoint, I’m not trying to win the next 48 hours of market reaction. I’m making sure clients are positioned to withstand a weaker growth backdrop. That means staying disciplined, leaning into quality, and being more intentional about how much risk we’re carrying.”
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