The AI trade and the Fed meet this week — Here's what advisors need to know

The AI trade and the Fed meet this week — Here's what advisors need to know
Richard Reyle
This week's Nvidia earnings and the Jackson Hole speech aren't usually linked — but with Kevin Warsh sitting as Fed chair this year, they are.
AUG 24, 2026

We’re still in the midst of summer vacation season, but there’s plenty on the horizon that advisors and their client need to be aware of this week.

On Wednesday all eyes will be on chip giant Nvidia Corp. (Ticker: NVDA), which reports its second-quarter results after market close. Then, on Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, which will be his first since he assumed the Fed’s hotseat in May. 

“This is a key week for markets with Nvidia's earnings and the annual Jackson Hole speech, which normally wouldn't have a link, but Nvidia needs to impress in order to keep one leg of the stock market stable, and Warsh needs to provide clarity on interest rates in order to keep the other leg of the stock market stable,” said Richard Reyle, chief investment officer at Questar Capital Partners, in a statement. “The Treasury's unprecedented action in the bond market last week puts Warsh in a tough spot, especially for a Chair that seems to prefer less communication than more.”

Nvidia on deck

With regard to Nvidia, advisors will be closely watching to see whether the AI darling can continue its stellar trajectory. Nvidia reported blowout results last quarter, with revenue up 85% from the same period last year, boosted by record data center revenue that climbed 92% year over year. “All roads lead to Nvidia thanks to the enormous AI build out and the circularity of the financing, which makes Nvidia the alpha bank of all of it, so we expect them to once again post great numbers,” said Reyle. “How could they not?  The question is, will the stock still have a muted reaction even with great numbers.”

Nvidia’s shares dipped more than 1% on the day following its first-quarter results, so advisors and their clients will be monitoring to see whether a similar reaction could follow after this week’s numbers.

Warsh’s comments at Jackson Hole will be under an even brighter spotlight following last week’s surprise move by the U.S. Treasury Department to double its bond buyback size in an attempt to calm a jittery market.

“The Treasury's intervention in the bond market raises the importance of Warsh's Jackson Hole comments as the real problem was that as yields rose, the dollar dropped, which is abnormal,” said Reyle. “This relates back to AI because now the AI spend is increasingly dependent on debt.”

“Interest rates may be the single most important thing in our economy right now,” he added.

Treasury's big signal

Stephen Coltman, head of macro at 21shares says that, while the scale of the Treasury’s intervention was small, the signal it sent was powerful, weakening the US dollar and lifting inflation expectations. “With the Fed still hawkish and talking about the need to bring inflation down, the Fed and the Treasury appear to be working at cross purposes,” he said in a statement. “Kevin Warsh will have an opportunity to try and reassert credibility over the Fed’s inflation target with his speech at Jackson Hole later this week.”

"Fiscal Dominance is where the financing needs of the government take priority over the inflation target of the central bank, and last week’s intervention fit squarely into this category, hence the violent reaction in limited supply assets such as gold and bitcoin," he added. 

The Federal Reserve made its last rate cut in December 2025, but has since kept its policy rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% despite pressure from President Donald Trump to lower rates.

Interest rate spotlight

Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's July meeting, released last week, show a contingent of officials ready to push rates higher if inflation doesn't retreat toward the Fed's 2% target. 

On Monday morning, the CME’s FedWatch tool puts the probability of rates being unchanged at 59.9% for September’s Fed meeting. A hike to between 3.75% and 4% has a likelihood of 40.1%, according to the tool, which updates in real time.

For advisors, the immediate priority is managing client expectations ahead of two binary-risk events landing within 48 hours of each other. Clients invested in AI-exposed positions should be prepared for volatility regardless of Nvidia's headline numbers — as last quarter showed, even blowout results don't guarantee a positive stock reaction. On the rate side, advisors may want to revisit fixed-income allocations and duration exposure before Friday, given that Warsh's tone on inflation credibility could move yields more than the substance of what he actually says.

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