Economic mood swings into 2026 but high earners aren’t buying the optimism

Consumer attitudes toward the US economy have opened 2026 with an unusual burst of optimism; at least on the surface.

New readings from data analysts CivicScience show the sharpest improvement in broad economic sentiment in more than three years. But higher-income Americans are becoming more skeptical even as headline confidence indicators rise.

The Penta-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index recorded a 2.9-point biweekly rise to 34.8 in mid-January, the largest gain since July 2022, with all five components advancing led by a surge in how consumers view their personal finances. That sub-index climbed 4.3 points to 54.7, signaling that many households feel their own balance sheets are stabilizing.

There were also gains in perceptions of job prospects, readiness to make major purchases, confidence in buying a home, and views of the overall US economy. While absolute levels remain historically low, the speed of the rebound marks a notable change from the stagnant readings that dominated much of 2025.

Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers tells a similar, but more nuanced, story with preliminary data showing a January sentiment reading that reached the highest level since September 2025. However, the survey highlighted diverging experiences across income tiers.

As the report stated: “Consumer sentiment inched up for the second straight month and reached its highest reading since September 2025. Improvements in January were seen among lower-income consumers, while sentiment fell for those with higher incomes.”

The full data release from the Michigan study will be released on January 26.

In the meantime, this split personality in consumer confidence creates both opportunity and risk. On one hand, improving general sentiment can encourage spending, borrowing, and greater willingness to commit to long-term goals. On the other, affluent clients may remain hesitant to deploy capital or increase market exposure if their economic outlook is deteriorating.