Is a weakening consumer enough to derail the US economy in 2026?

The Conference Board has nudged up its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.9% from 1.8%, even after its closely watched gauge of future economic activity slipped for the month.

The organization's Leading Economic Index  fell 0.2% in June to a reading of 99.1, giving back part of the ground gained in April and May, when the index rose 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. Despite the pullback, the LEI has fallen just 0.3% across the first six months of 2026, a far gentler slide than the 1.1% drop recorded in the second half of last year.

“Despite the recent decline, the LEI's six- and twelve-month growth rates, while negative, were stable. Consumer spending is weakening, but strong business investment related to AI is expected to support economic activity while inflation continues to improve,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager for business cycle indicators at The Conference Board.

Broader growth signals hold steady

A separate measure of present-day economic conditions, the Coincident Economic Index, told a steadier story, climbing 0.2% in June to 114.6 after an identical 0.2% gain in May.

All four inputs that feed the CEI, payroll employment, personal income excluding transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production, contributed positively during the month. Across the first half of the year the CEI grew 0.4%, edging out the 0.3% expansion posted in the previous six-month stretch.

The Lagging Economic Index (LAG), which tracks confirmation of trends already underway, held flat at 120.5 in June following a 0.1% dip in May. Even so, its six-month trajectory turned firmly positive, rising 1.1% over the first half of 2026 after contracting 0.1% in the back half of 2025.

The report's soft spot centered on household attitudes and housing activity: weakening consumer expectations for business conditions and a decline in building permits across most categories were the main drags on the LEI, even as financial components, led by the yield spread, provided a partial offset.