Double-dip disquiet?

If consumers continue to feel nervous about their money over the next few months, it's a sure sign that the U.S. economy will dive straight into a double-dip recession. That's the conclusion of the latest release of the Money Anxiety Index, which measures various economic indicators and factors associated with consumers' level of financial worry and stress. According to Dan Geller, chief research officer for the index, times are particularly tough when consumers' worry levels increase five or more months in a row. In the past 50 years, such steady increases in money anxiety signaled recessions in 1960, 1969, 1973, 1980, 1990 and most recently in 2007, according to Mr. Geller's research. In the most recent recession, the index started climbing in October 2006, when it stood at 52.9, and increased to 62.6 by December 2007. The gradual increase indicated that consumers started feeling anxious about financial matters even though their confidence level was still high. May was the third consecutive month the Money Anxiety Index trended upward, ending the month at 91.9. The last time the index was higher was in the early 1980s, when it hit 136. Two more monthly increases would signal another recession. “Based on historical trends, there is a very high probability that we will enter a double-dip recession, provided that consumers' financial anxiety level will remain at the current level or higher in the next few months,” Mr. Geller said in a statement last week.