Economists expect Fed to ignore jumbo rate cut calls

A large majority of economists surveyed see only a quarter-point decrease in interest rates coming in September — a finding that’s at odds with calls from some large Wall Street banks for a jumbo cut at the next meeting.

Nearly four-fifths of economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict the Federal Reserve will trim rates to a range of 5% to 5.25% at its September 17-18 meeting, with most of the rest predicting a larger reduction. The median forecast shows just 10% odds for a rare move to adjust rates prior to the scheduled gathering.

Fed policymakers have pushed back on the need for aggressive actions following a weaker-than-expected jobs report in July, when hiring slowed markedly and the unemployment rate rose to the highest level in nearly three years. 

At the same time, Fed leaders led by Chair Jerome Powell have said they are putting increased weight on their full employment mandate while continuing to strive to reduce inflation to their 2% target.

Some major Wall Street banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc., changed their calls after last week’s jobs report to predict a half-point move next month. More broadly, futures investors responded by pricing in a 100-basis-point reduction by the end of the year, starting with a 50-basis-point cut next month.

Yet the consensus among economists was that the Fed would opt for a smaller, quarter-point move at meetings in September, November and December, and in the first quarter of 2025. The 51 economists were surveyed August 6-8 in the wake of a global market selloff.

Calls for a jumbo-sized cut “are overdone and a knee-jerk reaction,” said Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics. “Historically, the Federal Open Market Committee has delivered intermeeting cuts and cuts larger than 25bps when there was a clear negative economic shock or when the data were worse than they have been so far.”

What Bloomberg Economics Says

“Bloomberg Economics now sees the Fed cutting policy rates by 50 basis points in September, followed by 25-bp cuts at each of the following two meetings, for a total of 100 bps in rate reductions this year.”

— Anna Wong

Two days prior to the new jobs data, policymakers kept rates unchanged, yet signaled they were closer to lowering borrowing costs. Powell said a rate cut could be appropriate as soon as the central bank’s September meeting.

Fed officials have seen the cooling job growth as a sign of a slowing economy, but not indicating a recession. Growth continues at a “fairly steady level,” Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said Monday. Speaking the same day, San Francisco President Mary Daly said the US labor market, while slowing, is “reasonably solid.”

In the survey, 60% described the job market as solid though softened somewhat, and another 24% said it has weakened significantly but will likely stabilize. Just 16% predicted significant job losses are coming.

As for an intermeeting move, it would take a shock, such as dysfunction in credit markets and liquidity problems, for that to happen, according to a 46% plurality of economists.

“We think financial markets might force the Fed to cut intermeeting but otherwise don’t think last week’s data is enough of a reason,” said Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research. “Financial conditions matter, and the Fed might be forced to help offset the tightening - but that’s not our base case.”

Despite the recent market turmoil and slowing economy, 69% of respondents predict the US will have a soft landing with no recession, while another 10% see a soft landing if the Fed moves with swift, aggressive action. Just 22% predict a recession.

During Powell’s tenure as chair, the Federal Open Market Committee has only used super-sized moves during emergencies. In the first two weeks of March 2020, it cut its benchmark rate by 1.5 percentage points to rapidly reach zero as Covid-19 began slamming the US economy. In 2022, the FOMC raised rates in both 50- and 75-basis-point steps in the face of escalating inflation.