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Bond traders are terrible at timing Fed rate hikes
In late 2008, amid the financial crisis, traders expected several Fed hikes in the following couple of years, but central bank officials didn't tighten until 2015.
Bond ETFs hammered by growing inflation bets
Price pressures are expected to rise now that Covid-19 vaccines are being rolled out and given the prospect of more fiscal and monetary stimulus.
Americans worry inflation will make retirement unaffordable
59% of those surveyed by Allianz believe rising costs will prevent them from enjoying life in retirement
Early estimate puts 2021 Social Security COLA at 1.3 percent
That adjustment for next year would be small, but higher than previously expected
Treasuries indicate the Fed is getting an edge on inflation
Inflation-adjusted rates on 10-year Treasuries and U.S. households' rising inflation expectations are among the signals that the central bank's efforts are working
The rush to hedge inflation sparks a run on TIPS
Managers have been snapping up trades like TIPS as a cheap hedge against disruptive inflation in 2020
Inflation in 2018: How big is the monster under the bed?
Most say it will be tame; but predicting it is 'murderously hard.'
One little-watched indicator for rising rates is flashing red
Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen is looking at a broader range of data for a rate-hike trigger. She hasn't highlighted one labor indicator that economists say is sounding inflation alarms: short-term unemployment.
Ukraine’s new resistance to Russia draws attention back to the macroeconomic fallout
Friday's menu: Ukraine heats up and fund winners and losers come into focus. Plus: Fed-speak clarity: an oxymoron? Bank loan funds fall victim to Fed policy, Obamacare drags us back to the 1950s and banks square off with Big Labor in Vegas.
PE giant Carlyle Group is eyeing the retail investor market and liquid alts
Breakfast with Benjamin: Private equity giant wants in on liquid alts. Plus: QE might have a fueled high-inflation cycle, the small-cap stock ride is ending, time to get some defense in that portfolio, and the poor outlook for the long-term unemployed
What, me worry?
For anyone with money in the market, worrying is just a way of life. Here are money manager Scott Colyer's four potential “black swans.” Could any of them derail 2014 as another good or great year for financial assets?
Yellen takes another stab at offering clarity on Fed policy without jarring the markets
Breakfast with Benjamin: Can Janet Yellen and her Federal Reserve colleagues avoid roiling the markets? Plus: Visa and MasterCard tighten screws on Russian banks, bond ladders get snubbed by a fan of bond barbells, checking the math on alternative-investment performance, and the momentum-stock nosedive is real.
Consumers left in the loan lurch as big banks still hold off
Friday's menu: Consumers still left in the loan lurch. Plus: Which manager just jumped into the liquid alts pool? Some stocks for a rising-rate cycle; commodities are hot again; European banks ride the wave; and Merrill trims its housing outlook.
Markets are bracing for a rough start to the week
Breakfast with Benjamin: Why investors are bracing for a rough start to the week. Plus: The SEC hones in on hedge funds, rethinking stock buyback programs, trading stocks on your phone, and using your phone to break bad habits
Bank ETFs ride the choppy waves of Yellen-speak
Breakfast with Benjamin: Bank ETFs ride the choppy waves of Yellen-speak. Plus: Still waiting for Treasury yields to spike, new love for intermediate-term bond funds, hot stocks ahead of earnings reports, and even gold bugs are starting to worry about the precious metal's decline
Russia and the energy-stock short-sale question
Breakfast with Benjamin: Is it time to short energy stocks, given the Russian rabble rousing? Plus: Gold's reaction to Fed chief Yellen, Candy Crush IPO's dizzy math, how to retire with $1M, and at tax time, age counts (the younger, the better).
Pioneer forges ahead with liquid alternative mutual funds
Strategies designed to eliminate interest rate risk or even benefit from rising rates.
Obama administration’s call for boycotting Russian stocks falls flat
Breakfast with Benjamin: Investors not taking President Obama's advice. Plus: Fed warns there's always time to worry about bubbles, Morgan Stanley doubles down on biotech, the cloud computing frenzy marches on, activist investor challenges Coke management perks, and index investing to cut the tax bill
Fed tapers another $10B a month; stocks extend losses
Slight economic improvement keeps central bankers on track as they commit to keeping target interest rate near zero.
Gross: Focus on shorter maturities as inflation trumps jobs
Pimco's Bill Gross is recommending investors focus on shorter-duration debt. Why? More important than the upcoming jobs report, the slow pace of inflation indicates the Fed will keep its benchmark interest rate at or close to zero.
