Birinyi's Rubin offers startling prediction for S&P 500

Sees large-cap index topping 2,100 at peak of current bull market

Jun 14, 2011 @ 3:30 pm

+ Zoom

Birinyi Associates Inc.'s Jeffrey Yale Rubin said the firm is bullish on equities this year, while Dean Curnutt of Macro Risk Advisors says the performance of stocks depends on the actions by the Federal Reserve.

“For the remainder of the year, we're positive,” Rubin said today at a panel discussion on equities at the Bloomberg Money Managers conference in Boston. For the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, “we have a target of 2,100 but that's not this year, that's not next year. When we look at stock markets that go on for a long period of time, that start off quickly -- 1974, 1982, 2009 -- those markets are not ones that end quickly. If you also look at those markets during this period, phase two of the market, it runs into difficulty.”

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have fallen six straight weeks, the longest streaks since 2008 and 2002, respectively, as reports on jobs and manufacturing spurred concern that the global economy is slowing. The S&P 500 is still up 90 percent since its low in March 2009. Equities have risen since August, with the S&P 500 up 23 percent since Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled the central bank would provide stimulus measures to boost the economy.

Curnutt, the New York-based chief executive officer of Macro Risk, said the firm's view on stocks is “largely conditional” on the next policy response by the U.S. central bank. The Fed's $600 billion program of buying Treasuries to stimulate the economy is ending this month. The S&P 500 could rise to 2,100 if the Fed decided it wanted it to, he said at the conference.

“One of the problems we're having is asset prices are necessarily imposed with a tremendous amount of artificiality from the Fed, from the fiscal response,” Curnutt said.

--Bloomberg News--

0
Comments

What do you think?

View comments

Recommended for you

Sponsored financial news

Featured video

INTV

Vanguard's Joe Davis: Prepare for lower expected returns

The next five years will be more challenging for the markets than the past five, according to Joe Davis, global chief economist at Vanguard. Here's why it's more important than ever to stay reasonable with return expectations and stick to the plan.

Video Spotlight

Are Your Clients Prepared For Market Downturns?

Sponsored by Prudential

Recommended Video

Path to growth

Latest news & opinion

Jerry Schlichter's fee lawsuits have left an indelible mark on the 401(k) industry

After a decade of litigation, fees are lower and retirement plans are more transparent. But have the lawsuits gone too far?

10 best financial adviser jokes

How many financial advisers does it take to screw in a lightbulb?

With margins crashing, broker-dealers look to merge: report

Increased regulation is straining profit margins among broker-dealers, sending many of them into the arms of their bigger brethren.

Hackers may have profited from SEC breach

The hack of the agency's Edgar filing system occurred in 2016, but the regulator didn't conclude until last month that the cybercriminals may have used their bounty to make illicit trades.

Top 10 financial firms ranked by investor satisfaction

Find out which firm took the top slot for overall investor satisfaction for the second year in a row.