Berkowitz bets on Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac

His firm, Fairholme Capital Management LLC, recently disclosed that it owns $2.4 billion of the junior preferred stock of both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. While the well-known money manager posted a 36% return in his flagship Fairholme Fund last year and was up another 20% through the end of May, he is only now recovering from the huge 32% loss he suffered in 2011 — mostly due to his very large and early bet on the banking sector.

INVESTOR-OWNED

Mr. Berkowitz is swinging for the fences again with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — the two government-sponsored enterprises whose ownership structure is still in limbo. Preferred shares in both firms, which pay no dividends to private investors, have skyrocketed this year as hedge funds such as Paulson & Co. and now mutual funds such as Mr. Berkowitz’s are betting they can convince the government to let the companies pay off their $187 billion in debt to taxpayers and emerge again as investor-owned companies.

Fannie Mae’s 5.375% non-cumulative preferred Series 1, for example, topped $11 last month, rising from about $3 in March. The shares have a par value of $25 and currently trade at just over $9.

Fairholme said in a statement that it is “ready to help with a restructuring that accelerates the return of meaningful investment to the secondary-mortgage market.” It continued: “Privately owned Fannie and Freddie are critical to our nation’s economic security, lowering the cost and increasing the availability of homeownership.”

Optimism about a restructuring of the two lenders has been fueled by the continuing recovery in the housing market and increasing profitability for both companies. The recent suggestion by Jim Millstein, the former Treasury Department official who oversaw the rescue and reorganization of American International Group Inc., that Fannie and Freddie could and should be restructured, likely has helped, as well. The government made a profit of more than $20 billion on the AIG restructuring.

The problem is that neither Republicans nor Democrats appear willing to release the companies from government conservatorship or to allow them to pay off the government’s preferred position with its increasingly large dividend payments.

A draft bill written by Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., and Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., would replace Fannie and Freddie with another government entity. The draft, which has not been formally proposed, gives no indication that politicians expect there will be any value left over for shareholders — preferred or common.

TAXPAYER UPSIDE

“We are not in the habit of or in a position to give any investment advice whatsoever, but our bill — when finished — will make every effort to ensure that taxpayers get all of the upside that comes with the risks they were asked to assume in 2008,” Mr. Corker said in a statement.

Jaret Seiberg, a policy analyst with Guggenheim Securities LLC, sees the chances of Fannie and Freddie surviving intact as slim. “The overwhelming view in Washington on both sides of the aisle is that any changes in housing and finance have to involve liquidating Fannie and Freddie,” he said.

If that’s the case, Mr. Berkowitz and other investors in the two companies could be left holding the bag.