Guessing game: Adrian Moravcsik, Senior vice president, principal

Stein Roe Investment Counsel LLC in San Francisco

Assets under management: $8 billion

Forecast:

The tail is wagging the dog, Mr. Moravcsik says. In other words, the stock market isn’t the usual harbinger of the economy.

The decent U.S. economy may instead portend improving stock prices in the coming year. With so little optimism to be found among even the professional gurus, continued good results could sneak up on the analysts, he says.

And investors enjoy higher

liquidity than during the peak of the bubble. They are feeling pressure to put the money to work with money markets so pathetically low, Mr. Moravcsik adds.

He expects double-digit returns.

The finish line, 2003:

* The Dow: 9600

* The Nasdaq: 1600

* The S&P 500: 1000

Tip Sheet:

* Hot stock: Renaissance Re Holdings (RNR)

* Hot sector: investment banking

* Next big thing: high-quality growth stocks