Bitcoin rally could endure if US manages a soft landing

But further tightening by the Fed could put a swift end to the crypto rally.

The crypto market rebound this year could have room to run if the US economy manages to achieve a soft landing.

That’s the view of Zach Pandl, the recently appointed managing director of research at crypto fund provider Grayscale Investments LLC, who previously worked as a strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

A scenario of low inflation and steady growth would likely aid risk assets, including crypto, by allowing the Federal Reserve to lower real interest rates, Pandl wrote in a note. But “if the central bank decides to raise real interest rates further, or if its monetary tightening to date tips the economy into recession, the crypto recovery may pause over the near term,” he said.

Many investors think the Fed’s most aggressive tightening campaign since the 1980s is close to an end as price pressures cool. That prospect helped to fuel a crypto revival earlier this year, as did optimism that the US may allow its first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, but the rally has since stalled.

Ongoing regulatory uncertainty over the status of digital assets in the US and stresses in decentralized finance — or DeFi — have also hit sentiment. DeFi relies on blockchain-based software known as smart contracts, rather than Wall Street-style middlemen, to facilitate activities like trading or lending.

Pressure on the native token of key DeFi exchange Curve Finance has stoked concerns about cascading liquidations of positions throughout the embryonic sector. The coin, CRV, fell as much as 8.1% on Wednesday.

Bitcoin added just over 1% to reach $29,600 as of 8:33 a.m. in London on Wednesday, leaving its 2023 rebound from last year’s rout at 79%. The largest digital asset remains about $39,000 off its 2021 peak of almost $69,000.

MicroStrategy Inc., the largest publicly-traded holder of Bitcoin, said Tuesday it may raise as much as $750 million via share sales and use some of the proceeds to buy more of the token.