Grading Byron Wien’s 2010 predictions
Prediction: 'Heavy borrowing by the U.S. Treasury and some reluctance by foreign central banks to keep buying notes and bonds drives the yield on the 10-year Treasury above 5.5%.'
Grade: C minus — Mr. Wien had the right idea, but the wrong result. The Treasury Department has been borrowing heavily. And foreign central banks have gotten nervous about buying Uncle Sam's IOUs. Nevertheless, falling bond prices have not pushed up yields to 5.5%, mostly because interest rates remain microscopic. As of Dec. 21, the yield on the 10-year note was 3.35%.