OPINION: THIS ROUNDTABLE IS STRICTLY FOR SQUARES

So long, Barron’s roundtable. Good riddance. I don’t know whether I have just become so jaded or these panelists are so uninspired, but I didn’t even bother to read the darn thing until Monday morning. I remember a time, when I was at Goldman Sachs, where we would kick around the roundtable picks for hours, debating the relative bullishness and bearishness of the participants and thinking whether we might have some undiscovered diamonds and lay-up trades.

Now my eyes just glaze over as the panelists drone on positively about obscure med-tech names that don’t even sound like longs to me. Or to the other panelists for that matter. What a great opportunity lost by cronyism, inbreeding and the same old tired crew running this once-great weekly.

From the get-go I am struck by the remarkable inconsistencies and off-handed thinking by individuals who should know better. There’s Barton Biggs of Morgan Stanley Asset Management first badmouthing Japan, and then two weeks later, loving it. Go figure. Or how about his rap on Asia and tech? Asia is totally investable now, as are emerging markets. But the ills of Asia make the Nasdaq 100 Index a short? Come on, Barton, you are better than this. How can a situation that you think is investable cause you to want to short another sector because of that situation’s problems?

But that’s only part of the aggravation. Short the Nasdaq 100 Index, he says, like that’s some sort of walk in the park. Lord help him if he is short that fire-breathing monster.

Biggs, like so many other roundtable guys who spout that they are short this or betting against that, has no clue about how dangerous the ideas are. I’ve been short the Nasdaq 100 Index. This index is perhaps the single most hazardous in the world to trade, and I am including the semiconductor index and the bank index. Shorting the Nasdaq 100 Index is like tobogganing down Everest. It’s not that it’s not for just anybody; it’s for nobody.

Biggs adds GE to the mix of great investable shorts, which only makes me laugh
because there are about 14,000 stocks in the U.S. alone that I would short before I lay out GE.

It’s really easy to recommend shorting something as long as you don’t have to do it yourself. With your money.

GO STRAIGHT TO GABELLI

Carlene Ziegler of Artisan Partners over the course of the last few roundtables would have blown you to Alpha Centauri. So what? She’s back, chatting on about a series of small-cap picks that you should have to sign a waiver releasing you from any obligations to your partners to make up losses if you buy. It is painful to see that she likes one of my longs – I will spare you the name – because of the bad company that the stock is keeping. She’s right about Showbiz Pizza as a concept – my kids like it too. But it doesn’t mean I have to own the stock.

What got into Art Samberg of Dawson-Samberg Capital Management with that uncharacteristic list of gunslinging expensive tech names? I always look to Art for bargains – but he disses the bargains and instead talks the high-priced spread. Oh well. He saved his best for first, I guess.

Marc Perkins of Perkins Capital Advisers is another guy who will skate next year when his picks get imploded by this market. As he did last year. Maybe I am using a different kind of arithmetic than the folks at Barron’s, but try as I might I just can’t reach the performance claims that Perkins or Barron’s boasts for his picks last year. I wondered, actually, if Perkins made any money last year. Least they could do is post his fund’s return.

Shorting LEAPS (long-term equity anticipation securities), eh? Solid, solid idea. Solid as bridge bungee jumping. Where do these guys come up with these incredibly dangerous ideas?Save the crazy stuff for Evel Knievel types. I like to make money, not lose it.

Next!

I thought installment two had a couple of inspired ideas, and an inspiring command performance by Mario Gabelli. I’ve been tough on Gabelli in previous years, chiding him for sticking with losers. But the flipside of that criticism is that when he
gets it right, I’m all ears. And Gabelli has gotten it really right. His great numbers in ’97 are a testament to his hard, clear vision of what’s occurring in the investment landscape.

Gabelli led the panel off with a thesis about consolidation that is so true it had me running to my notebook to jot down ideas. But I didn’t have to do much jotting, because Gabelli owns either what I am buying or what I own, or what I intend to buy. His three big theses – publishing/Internet/entertainment, aerospace and soda bottling – all make so much sense to me that the only question I had was about the last one: whether I should wait until after Whitman Corp. breaks up to buy it, or buy it now.

When Gabelli is hot, he is white-hot, and that’s how he is right now. In previous roundtables I thought he had gotten subdued, and that the guy should take a break from his round-the-clock self-promotion. But he has come roaring back to be an integral portion of the investing firmament, someone who is skeptical, smart, perceptive and witty. Wow, that’s about as much praise as you will ever see from this trading turret.

MORE IDEAS TO AVOID

Unfortunately, I used up all my positives on Gabelli; I don’t think there is that much beyond him.

Archie MacAllaster, chairman of MacAllaster Pitfield & MacKay, makes his annual somnolent appearance at the table. He is chock-full of the same old boring insurance names and he throws a couple of giant-sized banks into the stew. I don’t know when this part of the roundtable was taped, but you can be glad old Arch didn’t go first because he would have blown you to kingdom come with some of his bank picks.

The only thing truly amusing about this obviously nice guy’s picks was that he mentions Polaris, which my assistant, Jeannie Cullen, recently pitched on the short side to me, betting on an earnings shortfall. No offense, Arch, but my bet’s on Jeannie, who I think is more up on the situation.

Then there’s Felix Zulauf, president of Zulauf Asset Management, with his annual doomsayer’s addres
s. Only Barron’s would keep this gloomy hack on board, every year predicting the end of the world as we know it.

Last I looked, hadn’t happened. Only Zulauf Asset Management would employ a Mr. Zulauf, considering the losses this guy will generate for you. You’d think he’d respect this roundtable and do some work rather than just carpet-bombing the world’s bourses. But, oh yeah, it’s Barron’s; you don’t have to do any work.

Scott Black of Delphi Management is a pro, so you would think he would know better than to lead off with a kind of stock that will gap up viciously on Monday because he mentioned it. That said, he’s right; Grey Advertising is great. In fact, I thought all of Black’s picks made sense in a methodical, inexpensive sort of way. But Black’s stocks all lack the kinds of catalysts you may need to exit stocks in 1998.

Black’s is a good, solid list. No land mines, but nothing to burn rubber to get to. That’s why Gabelli’s ideas were so cogent to me. In fact, as I write this, Jeff Berkowitz, my partner, has called me twice to hash out which of Gabelli’s names to buy. Not only does Gabelli tell you why to get in; he also tells you how to get out.

Got to love that.

James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-chairman and daily columnist for TheStreet.com, an online news service (www.thestreet.com) that first published this article. At the time this piece was originally published, his firm held a long position in General Electric. Mr. Cramer’s writings are not a solicitation for transactions and under no circumstances does the information in them represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks or derivatives.