Stocks subdued as investors await data flurry

Inflation stats followed by the Fed and several global economic data releases are incoming this week.

European stocks and US equity futures posted small moves as investors geared up for a busy week of data, including the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

Miners were a drag on Europe’s Stoxx 600 index as it pulled back 0.3% from Friday’s record close. Rio Tinto Plc and Anglo American Plc led declines in the basic resources sector amid concerns over Chinese demand. Contracts for the S&P 500 were little changed after Wall Street’s rally stalled at the end of last week, weighed down by profit taking in megacap tech stocks. Treauries and the dollar were steady.

Shares in UK homebuilders dropped after Britain’s top antitrust enforcer opened an investigation into eight companies in the sector to probe the potential sharing of competitively sensitive information.

Investor focus this week is set to shift from earnings to a slate of economic data, including Thursday’s so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, an indicator closely watched by the Fed. Fourth-quarter US GDP numbers are due Wednesday, while traders will track comments from a host of central bank officials for clues on the path for interest rates.

“There is a lot of economic data coming in this week, which will be more decisive for whether investors will stay in a risk-on mood,” said Tatjana Puhan, chief investment officer at Copernicus Wealth Management. “We should factor in the possibility that if the US economy remains strong for a few more months and US corporate earnings as well, we should see at least in the US market a further potential for positive momentum.”

On the outlook for equities, strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said stock markets have room to extend gains beyond their record highs if the economic outlook remains upbeat and investors pour money into recent laggards. The S&P 500’s run to an all-time peak has left investor positioning “extremely” concentrated in the so-called Magnificent Seven, the team led by Cecilia Mariotti wrote in a note.

While that does create the risk of a pullback, there’s also “space for bullish sentiment and positioning to be further supported, especially if we start seeing a more meaningful rotation out of cash and into risky assets and laggards within equities,” the strategists wrote.

Meanwhile, figures showed that after piling into tech stocks in the weeks before Nvidia Corp.’s earnings, hedge funds are now cashing out and selling at the fastest pace in seven months. Professional managers offloaded their positions for four straight sessions last week, including Thursday, the day after Nvidia posted results, according to data from Goldman’s prime-brokerage unit. The intensity of the selling ranks in the 98th percentile of the past five years.

The data suggests traders are booking profits on their tech wagers after a six-week buying streak and putting that extra cash into less volatile stocks, such as consumer staples. Companies that make household products saw the most net buying in 10 weeks, according to Goldman’s prime brokerage.

In Asian trading Monday, MSCI Inc.’s Asia Pacific index was steady as a continued rally in Japanese shares countered declines in China, where the mainland benchmark CSI 300 Index snapped its longest winning streak since 2018.

BOOST FROM BUFFETT

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average extended record highs, with shares in Japanese trading houses rising after Warren Buffett said in his annual shareholder letter that the companies follow investor-friendly policies that are “much superior” to firms in the US. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway rose as much as 5.5% in US premarket trading on Monday after the firm said its cash pile scaled a new record.

Looking ahead to Thursday’s economic data, headline and core PCE are both set to come in at a hot 0.4% month-over-month pace — versus 0.2% prior for both — driven in large part by residual seasonality, according to Bloomberg Economics.

“Despite the high monthly reading, base effects will likely allow annual core inflation to edge down to 2.8% in January (vs. 2.9% prior) and continue to fall to 2.5% or lower by mid-year, supporting our baseline expectation for a first Fed rate cut in May,” Tom Orlik, chief economist, wrote in a note.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said in an interview published Friday that the economy is headed in the right direction, and it will likely be appropriate to cut rates later this year. A slew of Fed speakers this week are likely to reiterate Williams’s comments that the central bank doesn’t feel pressure to begin cutting rates anytime soon. Investors are also braced for the impact from heavy Treasury and corporate issuance and month-end positioning.

In commodities, oil followed a weekly drop with further losses as traders awaited fresh clues about global demand and balances in March and beyond. Iron ore fell to the lowest since October — after dropping almost 9% last week — with hopes for a rebound in Chinese steel demand following the Lunar New Year holidays fading.

Key events this week:

Japan CPI, Tuesday
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks, Tuesday
US Conf. Board consumer confidence, durable goods, Tuesday
Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision, Wednesday
Eurozone economic, consumer confidence, Wednesday
FTSE 100 index review, Wednesday
US GDP, Wednesday
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, New York Fed John Williams speak, Wednesday
G-20 finance ministers and central bank chiefs meet, Wednesday
Australia retail sales, Thursday
France, Germany and Spain CPI, Thursday
US PCE Deflator, Thursday
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speak, Thursday
MSCI index changes, including the removal of 66 Chinese firms from the MSCI China Index, come into effect at the close, Thursday
China official PMI, Caixin manufacturing PMI, Friday
Eurozone CPI, Friday
US ISM Manufacturing, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
US House funding bill deadline to avert a government shutdown, Friday
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speak